It feels great taking a dip in warm sea water but the warmer water above 80°F around Baja California Sur also means there is an increased risk of hurricanes…

Very warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are a sportfisherman’s delight down here in Baja, however in hurricane-prone areas like Baja California Sur, the warmer sea water also brings high risk, providing the energy needed for tropical cyclone formation and intensification.

Here’s why:

1. Fuel for Hurricanes: Warm SSTs, typically above 26.5°C (80°F), supply heat and moisture to the atmosphere, driving the convection that powers tropical storms and hurricanes. Higher SSTs increase evaporation, providing more energy and moisture, which can lead to stronger storms with heavier rainfall and higher wind speeds.
2. Increased Hurricane Risk: In regions like Baja California Sur, which lies in a hurricane-prone area of the eastern Pacific, unusually warm SSTs can enhance the likelihood of tropical cyclone development. They can also allow storms to intensify rapidly, potentially reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).
3. Extended Storm Activity: Warmer SSTs can prolong the hurricane season or allow storms to form earlier or later than usual, increasing the window of vulnerability for the southern Baja Peninsula, as well as heavy tropical storm at times to coastal areas of Baja north of the 28th parallel.
4. Local Impacts: Very warm SSTs can lead to stronger hurricanes making landfall or passing close enough to cause heavy rainfall, flooding, storm surges, and damaging winds.

Looking at the latest SST map for Baja, the water is warm enough for a storm system tracking in our direction – under the right conditions – to maintain hurricane strength wind speeds, from Mag Bay south to Cabo San Lucas and the entire Gulf of California today.

What is even more concerning is that it’s been an unusually hot summer for much of the northeast Pacific region, especially down the Gulf of California, with periods of very high temperatures sustained for most of the summer to this point. That could mean that the very warm water might not only be at the surface but could extend down deeper in areas along Baja’s coastline, from the surface water exposed to very hot temperatures for such a long period of time.

Very warm SSTs at deeper depths is a major problem for coastal communities facing an approaching hurricane, as deep water SSTs may minimize any upwelling effect, where deeper, (normally) colder water rises to the ocean surface to fill in the displaced warmer surface water pulled up into the spinning hurricane, helping to slow it down.

The positive effects of upwelling could potentially be minimal in areas where very warm, deep water SSTs exist.

Might be a good idea to take out and check your Hurricane Prep List, and restock any expired or used items as well as take a cruise around your home to look for any trees that should be pruned, etc.

Waiting until your area is under a Hurricane Watch alert is simply too late.