Baja Mexico Weather and Storm Forecasts

Daily Weather with Surf, Wind and Tropical Storm Forecasts

Baja Weather Forecast

Updated: Wednesday 11MAR2026 05:00AM PDT

The Baja Peninsula is experiencing a classic early-spring weather pattern, characterized by a strengthening high-pressure system bringing stable, sunny conditions to the interior regions of the peninsula while maintaining a distinct temperature contrast between the Pacific and Gulf coastal areas.

U.S. Border & Northern Coastal Communities

Conditions: The northern border region, including Tijuana and Tecate, is enjoying clear to mostly sunny skies. A mild marine layer that lingered earlier this morning is burning off, leading to a pleasant afternoon.
Trends: In Tijuana and Rosarito, temperatures are reaching the low 70s, with a gentle westerly breeze between 5–10 mph. Tecate and Mexicali are expected to get much warmer, peaking in the low to mid 80s this afternoon.

The Pacific Coast

Conditions: The Pacific side continues to be influenced by the cool California Current, keeping coastal towns like Ensenada, San Quintin, and Bahía Asunción significantly cooler than their inland neighbors.
Trends: Highs are hovering between 70°F and 74°F north of Punta Eugenia, 75°F and 81°F south of Punta Eugenia. There is a consistent northwesterly wind flow (8–20 mph) that is most pronounced from San Quintin down toward Punta Abreojos. Humidity remains moderately high (around 50-60%) due to the onshore flow.

The Gulf of California (Sea of Cortez)

Conditions: The Gulf side is noticeably warmer and somewhat drier. Communities like San Felipe, San Luis Gonzaga, and Bahía de Los Angeles are seeing clear, brilliant sunshine.
Trends: This region is seeing the highest temperatures on the peninsula today, with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s in protected coves like San Luis Gonzaga. Winds are primarily from the north, with some fresh to strong winds at times this afternoon along the southern Gulf side.

Interior Mountains & High Deserts

Conditions: The high-altitude areas of Laguna Hanson and San Pedro Mártir are crisp and clear.
Trends: While the sun is intense, the elevation keeps temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The air is dry (humidity below 40%). In the central desert areas near Cataviña, the weather is exceptionally stable with highs in the upper 70s and clear night skies ahead.

Baja California Sur & The Cape

Conditions: Southern regions, including La Paz, Todos Santos and Cabo San Lucas, are dominated by lots of sun today with gusty winds this afternoon along the Gulf down to the East Cape
Trends: La Paz should see afternoon temperatures near 80°F with a moderate to fresh northerly winds. Cabo San Lucas is expecting close to the same temperatures with a bit less wind. Ciudad Constitución in the Magdalena Plain is the hotspot for the south, pushing toward the upper 80s.

Current Northeast Pacific Systems (7-Day Outlook)

The primary driver for the next week is a 1008 mb low-pressure system currently moving northeastward near Punta Eugenia. This system is responsible for today’s cooler air and scattered showers in Northern and Central Baja.

March 11–12 (The Transition): As the low moves inland, a massive 1037 mb high-pressure system is building from the Pacific toward the coast.
March 12–13 (“The Blow”): A sharp pressure gradient will form between this building high over the Great Basin and lower pressure over the Sonoran Desert. Expect gale-force gusts and Pacific swells exceeding 10 feet.
March 14–17 (Santa Ana Warming): As the high pressure settles over the region, a “Santa Ana” style warming trend will take hold. Cloud cover and the marine layer will dissipate, leading to a rapid temperature spike across the peninsula.

15-Day Extended Regional Forecast

The second half of March is expected to be dominated by stable, warmer-than-normal conditions as a high-pressure ridge anchors over the West.

Period	Forecast Trend	Key Impacts
Mar 11–13	Cool & Very Windy	Strong NW winds; 9–11 ft Pacific swells.
Mar 14–17	Clear & Hot	Highs jump into the mid-80s to low 90s in deserts.
Mar 18–21	Stable & Mild	High pressure dominates; calm conditions in the Gulf.
Mar 22–25	Frontal Brush	A weak Pacific front may bring thick coastal fog and cooler temps.

Long-Range Climate Note: We are currently under a La Niña Advisory. While a transition to ENSO-neutral is expected by April, the current 15-day window will likely remain drier than normal with persistent high-pressure ridges preventing significant storm activity from reaching the southern half of the peninsula.

Weather Forecast for Today

Marine Conditions

Today’s marine outlook for the Baja Peninsula is defined by a significant transition. As the low-pressure system departs, a powerful high-pressure ridge is building to the west, creating a tightening pressure gradient. This is beginning to generate fresh to strong northerly winds, particularly in the Gulf of California and along the Pacific “hook” near Punta Eugenia.

Surf and Offshore Swell Report

Pacific Coast (Norte): A new long-period WNW swell is filtering in. While surf heights are currently in the 3–5 ft range for exposed breaks like Ensenada and Cabo San Quintin, the swell period is exceptionally long (up to 20 seconds), which can cause sudden, powerful “sets” and strong rip currents.
Pacific Coast (Sur): Conditions are cleaner but winds are freshening. Punta Abreojos and San Juanico are seeing small, clean waves, but a significant 8–10 ft offshore swell is developing further out and will bring larger surf by the weekend.
Gulf of California: A “Nortada” (North Wind) event is intensifying. Winds are forecast to reach 20–25 knots by tonight, creating choppy, steep seas of 4–7 ft within the Gulf, particularly between San Felipe and Loreto.

Seawater Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

The following table provides the current SSTs in Fahrenheit, listed alphabetically. Trends show that while the Pacific remains in its late-winter cool phase, the shallow waters of the Northern Gulf are beginning their rapid spring warm-up.

Location	SST (°F)	Trend	Notable Marine Data
Bahía Asunción	62°	Stable	Moderate NW wind chop; 6 ft swell offshore.
Bahía de Los Angeles	63°	Warming	High visibility; breezy conditions near islands.
Bahía San Ignacio	61°	Stable	Calm inside lagoon; 5 ft swell at the boca.
Bahía San Luis Gonzaga	65°	Warming	Rapid shallow-water warming; low tidal range.
Cabo San Lucas	73°	Rising	Blue water pushing closer to shore; light chop.
Cabo San Quintin	61°	Stable	Thick morning fog lifting; 4 ft long-period swell.
Ensenada	61°	Cooling	Stronger upwelling due to NW winds.
Erendira	59°	Cooling	Coldest water in the region; heavy kelp movement.
Guerrero Negro	60°	Stable	High turbidity in the shallows; 5 ft swell.
La Paz	71°	Stable	Clear water; increasing afternoon “Coromuel” winds.
Loreto	70°	Stable	Breezy/Choppy; small whitecaps in the channel.
Los Barriles	72°	Rising	Stronger NNE winds developing; 3–4 ft wind waves.
Mulege	69°	Warming	Calmest water on the Gulf side this morning.
Playas de Tijuana	62°	Stable	3 ft surf; moderate cross-shore winds.
Puertecitos	66°	Warming	High sedimentation; very calm morning sea state.
Punta Abreojos	63°	Rising	Strong afternoon NW winds; 5 ft swell.
Rosarito Beach	61°	Stable	Consistent 3–4 ft surf; clean morning conditions.
San Carlos	68°	Rising	Mangrove channels warming; light surface chop.
San Felipe	64°	Warming	Extreme tides (+18 ft range); building N winds.
San Juanico	65°	Stable	Small, long-boardable surf; increasing NW wind.
Santa Rosalia	68°	Stable	Deep water nearby remains cool; surface warming.
Santa Rosaliíta	61°	Cooling	Active upwelling; crisp, clear water.
Todos Santos	68°	Stable	Heavy shorebreak; 5–6 ft sets arriving later today.