Baja Mexico Weather and Storm Forecasts

Friday 03 July 2026 6:10AM PDT 

Atmospheric Conditions

A dynamic macro-scale standoff is unfolding across the Northeast Pacific, serving as the grand conductor for the atmospheric behavior stretching from our international boundary lines all the way to the southern capes. High-altitude moisture debris from a decaying post-tropical vortex far to our west is currently being sheared directly eastward by upper-level steering currents, draping a high, diffuse filtering canopy over our northern and central horizons. This high cirrus layer is actively interrupting the overnight cooling mechanics of the lower atmosphere, fracturing the structural cohesion of the coastal marine layer and preventing dense, solid fog decks from anchoring along the shore. Consequently, immediate beach zones are set for an accelerated midday clearing trend as solar radiation punches through this thin, patchy shield. Simultaneously, an expansive continental heat dome centered over the interior is building westward, flexing its thermal muscles against the cold upwelling ocean currents along the Pacific margin.

Out on the open ocean, waters remain considerably agitated far offshore where the broad wind and wave footprint of the dissolving tropical low continues to ripple, pushing a steady, long-period northwest swell train toward our outer coastal reefs. Down at the southern tip of the peninsula, the local heat engine is receiving a major injection of premium fuel as a distinct surge of warm tropical water creeps northward around the cape confluence. On the sheltered eastern flank of the landmass, the Gulf of California is operating at maximum output as a massive convective thermal battery, with exceptionally hot sea surface temperatures relentlessly bleeding high levels of latent heat and moisture into the lower atmosphere. This immense thermal reservoir is dramatically tightening the cross-peninsular pressure gradient against the cold Pacific shore, creating a powerful thermal vacuum that will pull robust, refreshing afternoon sea breezes across our interior coastal plains later today.

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Regional Forecast for Today

Baja California

The northern state is navigating sharp microclimatic contrasts today under a high cloud ceiling that will filter the incoming solar radiation. Along the immediate Pacific coastline, communities spanning from Tijuana and Rosarito Beach down through Ensenada and San Quintín will see morning gray rapidly transition to an afternoon of filtered, milky sunshine. Ambient conditions will feel warm to a bit warmer at the beach line as the fragmented marine stratus pinches tight to the surf zone, accompanied by light to moderate afternoon sea breezes pulsing out of the west-northwest.

Just a short drive inland, the landscape completely detaches from the oceanic influence, turning much warmer through the valleys and mountains, while the super-heated Mexicali Valley turns blistering hot under the high cloud screen with light southeasterly winds. There is an absolute zero percent chance of rain across the northern region today. Along the upper Gulf coastline, locations like San Felipe, Puertecitos, and Bahía San Luis Gonzaga will turn significantly hot to a lot hotter as the exceptionally warm Gulf waters elevate local humidity levels, keeping nearshore waters to a gentle afternoon chop as surface winds shift out of the east-northeast and southeast.

Baja California Sur

The southern state is locked into an intensely hot thermal profile today, with bright, persistent sunshine dominating almost every major zone down the peninsula’s southern half. Along the Pacific coastline from Guerrero Negro and Bahía Asunción down through Punta Abreojos and San Juanico, a high cloud screen will filter the afternoon sun, keeping things feeling warm to a bit warmer right at the water’s edge while fresh afternoon winds out of the northwest maintain a light to moderate surface chop on the water.

Further south around San Carlos and Todos Santos, skies will clear to mostly sunny, making the afternoon feel much warmer to hot as steady afternoon sea breezes pulse out of the west-northwest and west-southwest. Inland plains like Ciudad Constitución will turn a lot hotter under a blinding sun. Over on the eastern side, from Santa Rosalía and Mulegé down into Loreto and La Paz, conditions will turn exceptionally hot to a lot hotter under mostly sunny skies, fueled by super-heated Gulf waters that will trap high relative humidity along the coast. Nearshore marine environments inside the southern Gulf channels will remain smooth and peaceful with gentle easterly to northwesterly afternoon air patterns.

At the southern tip, Cabo San Lucas and Los Barriles will bask under mostly sunny skies and a hot thermal profile with a tiny chance for a brief afternoon sprinkle as tropical moisture edges up from the deep tropics, though coastal waters will remain highly manageable with a gentle southwest to east-northeast breeze.

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National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Update

Western East Pacific Disturbance

The National Hurricane Center is actively monitoring a distinct tropical wave located well southwest of the southern tip of the peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system remain disorganized this morning; however, environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive to gradual development over the next few days.

A tropical depression could form near midweek as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the western portion of the basin. The official formation chances remain low at near zero percent through forty-eight hours and a low twenty percent over the next seven days. The system is forecast to remain over open waters, moving away from the Mexican coastline with no direct threat to land.

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7-Day Regional Forecast

A filtered sun and patchy morning cloud cover will continue to dictate the pattern through the weekend as the high-altitude moisture shield gradually thins out and moves to the east. This will allow the immediate Pacific beaches to maintain a stable, comfortable, and warm afternoon profile, while the interior desert zones continue to experience a hot daily cycle. Gentle to moderate afternoon sea breezes will persist along both coastlines, keeping nearshore waters highly manageable for weekend boaters while providing a natural air conditioner for the immediate surf line each evening.

A major weather shift will unfold early next week as the massive high-pressure ridge to our southeast expands aggressively westward directly over the peninsular landmass. This expanding heat engine will squash the marine layer from above, restricting any night and morning low clouds mostly to the immediate Pacific surf line. As the atmosphere dries out, conditions will turn completely clear, dry, and a lot hotter across all interior valleys, mountain passes, and desert plains, while afternoon wind gradients steadily tighten along the western coast.

This intense heat ridge will reach a blistering peak by the middle of next week, expanding extreme afternoon heat across the entire peninsula. The northern desert valleys and the central and southern Gulf districts will enter an exceptionally hot phase under blinding, absolute sunshine, causing sea surface temperatures in the Gulf to climb even higher. While the immediate Pacific beaches will find minor afternoon relief from fresh, gusty onshore sea breezes, overnight low temperatures will turn significantly warmer across all communities as a heavy, hot atmospheric envelope locks down the region through the end of the outlook period.

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