Baja Mexico Weather and Storm Forecasts

Daily Weather with Surf, Wind and Tropical Storm Forecasts

Daily Baja Weather Report

Sunday 10 May 2026 6:00AM PDT

Developing Weather Patterns

An extensive high-pressure ridge is currently strengthening over the west coast, serving as the primary driver for a significant warming trend across the region. This system is actively compressing the marine layer, which is now restricted to a shallower depth of approximately 1,500 to 1,700 feet. While a moisture plume persists, latest observations show the peninsula remains within a “dry slot,” facilitating more rapid clearing of clouds than previously modeled.

This atmospheric interaction is creating a sharp thermal contrast; coastal regions stay much cooler under the influence of the shallow marine layer, while the interior and desert regions are becoming a lot hotter due to trapped heat and solar gain.

A primary northwest swell continues to propagate through offshore waters, maintaining active surf conditions along the Baja Pacific coastline.

Over on the Gulf of California, the pressure gradient between building inland heat and the offshore environment is inducing variable wind patterns.

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Regional Weather Reports

Northern Baja Pacific
The stretch from the international border to El Rosario is currently dominated by a shallow marine layer and consistent onshore flow. In Tijuana and Rosarito, skies are mostly sunny following the clearing of morning low clouds, with temperatures staying much cooler than the inland valleys. Winds are fresh from the west-northwest, ranging from 10 to 16 mph. Ensenada and San Quintín are seeing mostly sunny skies, with temperatures staying in a cool range and northwest winds gusting between 10 to 17 mph.

Northern Baja Interior
The Mexicali Valley is becoming a lot hotter relative to the coast under hazy sunshine, with temperatures peaking significantly above seasonal norms. To the west, the higher elevations of Laguna Hanson and the San Pedro Mártir are much warmer than the previous few days under clear, sunny skies. The strengthening ridge is causing winds to draw primarily from the west, with current gusts reaching up to 30 mph along the eastern desert slopes.

Southern Baja Interior
The Comondú region, including Ciudad Constitución, is much warmer than the Pacific coast this morning. Skies are sunny as the moisture plume is thinner in this sector, allowing for daytime temperatures to reach very warm levels. Winds are currently blowing from the west-northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Baja California Sur Pacific
The central and southern Pacific coastline is experiencing sunny conditions as the marine layer remains restricted to the immediate coast. Guerrero Negro and San Juanico are seeing windy conditions, with northwest gusts ranging from 15 to 30 mph. Further south in San Carlos, it remains a bit warmer with sunny skies and active northwesterly winds gusting to 20 mph.

Northern Gulf of California
Conditions near San Felipe and Puertecitos are sunny and warm. Under the influence of the strengthening ridge, winds are originating from the south and southeast at 8 to 15 mph. Localized heat pulses remain the primary driver for this coastline.

Southern Gulf of California
The southern basin, including Loreto and La Paz, is staying much warmer under sunny skies. La Paz is currently experiencing light to moderate winds from the south-southwest between 10 to 20 mph. While the air remains warm and humid, marine breezes provide relief along the immediate shore.

Los Cabos
At the tip of the peninsula, Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo are sunny with temperatures holding at warm levels. Winds are currently blowing from the west-northwest at 10 to 20 mph. A moderate northwest swell is present offshore, though overall conditions remain favorable for regional operators.

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7 Day Weather Forecast: May 10 – May 16

Sunday
As the ridge strengthens today, the warming trend intensifies. The interior and Gulf of California regions will become much warmer while shallow coastal breezes keep the Pacific side refreshed.

Monday
The warming trend peaks as the high-pressure ridge reaches its maximum intensity. On Monday, temperatures will be a lot hotter than the previous day, with inland areas experiencing heat 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal averages.

Tuesday
A cooling trend begins as the upper ridge starts to weaken and shift east. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler than Monday as a low-pressure system approaches from the northwest.

Wednesday
The cooling trend continues to spread across the northern regions. Expect a deepening marine layer to bring more persistent clouds and cooler temperatures to coastal areas.

Thursday
Cooler conditions persist as the low-pressure system moves inland through central and northern California. Temperatures will be much cooler than the start of the week, returning to near seasonal averages.

Friday
Temperatures begin a gradual upward trend as the low-pressure system moves east. Interior valleys will become a bit warmer relative to the coast as a high-zonal pattern develops aloft.

Saturday
The warming trend strengthens further into the weekend. Skies will remain mostly clear across the interior, allowing temperatures to become much warmer once again.

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8 to 14-Day Extended Outlook Summary

Long-range models indicate that once the midweek low clears the region, a high-zonal pattern will take hold. This transition will lead to a steady warming trend, with interior valleys becoming a lot hotter relative to the coast.

Marine conditions are forecast to remain moderate once the current northwest swell event subsides. Coastal regions will remain much cooler than the interior, where a steady warming trend and mostly clear skies are expected to prevail.

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Marine Conditions

Developing Marine Patterns

A broad high-pressure ridge positioned west of the region is the primary driver of current marine conditions offshore the Baja Pacific coastline. This feature is maintaining a tightening pressure gradient, supporting moderate to fresh northwesterly winds across the northern waters through today.

While a weakening of this high-pressure pattern is expected by mid-week, the current interaction continues to drive onshore flow and a deep marine layer along the coast. The peninsula is currently situated within a “dry slot,” which is facilitating more rapid clearing of low clouds than previously modeled despite the presence of a subtropical moisture plume.

A primary, long-period northwest swell is actively propagating through the offshore waters, with peak energy currently concentrated northwest of Isla Guadalupe. This swell event is maintaining energized surf conditions along the entire Baja Pacific coastline, with seas in the northern sectors building as high as 8 feet in offshore zones.

Within the Gulf of California, standard thermal flow is being disrupted by the offshore pressure configuration, inducing variable wind patterns and bringing warm, humid air across the coastline.

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Regional Marine Reports

Northern Baja Pacific
Offshore waters from the international border to El Rosario are currently dominated by fresh northwesterly winds ranging from 12 to 18 mph. Conditions in Ensenada and San Quintín remain in a cool range with northwesterly winds currently gusting between 10 and 17 mph. A significant northwest swell is active throughout this sector, with seas offshore building from 5 to 7 feet and swell periods sharpening to 12 seconds.

Baja California Sur Pacific
The central and southern Pacific coastline is experiencing mostly sunny conditions as the coastal marine layer thins. Active marine conditions exist near Guerrero Negro and San Juanico, where northwest wind gusts are currently ranging from 13 to 25 mph. Further south at San Carlos, conditions remain a bit warmer with sunny skies and northwesterly winds gusting to 20 mph.

Northern Gulf of California
Marine conditions near San Felipe and Puertecitos are currently warm with winds originating from the south and southeast at 10 to 15 mph. This pattern is bringing warm, humid air across the coast, though seas remain relatively calm at 3 feet or less with periods holding near 8 to 9 seconds.

Southern Gulf of California
The southern basin, including waters off Loreto and La Paz, is staying much warmer under mostly sunny skies. La Paz is reporting light to moderate winds from the south-southwest between 10 and 20 mph. While the local air is quite warm and humid, marine breezes remain moderate across the southern Gulf of California with swell periods holding near 11 seconds.

Los Cabos
At the tip of the peninsula, marine conditions remain favorable with winds blowing from the west-northwest at 10 to 18 mph. Waters remain at warm levels, and a moderate northwest swell is present offshore. Overall conditions remain stable for regional operators as the primary swell energy remains concentrated further north.

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Marine Warnings and Hazards

Current marine data indicates that rough seas are active for the waters north through northwest of Isla Guadalupe, where significant wave heights are reaching 8 feet today.

A significant northwest swell is contributing to these conditions, and operators of small vessels should exercise caution throughout the Northern Baja Pacific offshore zones where seas are ranging from 5 to 7 feet.

Fresh to strong northwest winds are active off Baja California Norte, creating choppy surface conditions. Additionally, looking ahead to the middle of the week, strong to near gale-force gap winds are forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Monday night as a cold front moves through southern Mexico.

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Seawater Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Location	Temp	Trend	Notes
Bahía Asunción, BCS	58°F	Warming	Mid Baja Pacific active upwelling under NW flow
Ba. Los Angeles, BC	68°F	Warming	Northern Gulf of California solar gain in channel
Ba. San Ignacio, BCS	62°F	Steady	Mid Baja Pacific shallow lagoon outflow mixing
Bahia Gonzaga, BC	71°F	Steady	Northern Gulf of California seasonal surface heating
Cabo San Lucas, BCS	78°F	Steady	Southern Baja tropical water mass moving north
Cabo San Quintín, BC	60°F	Steady	Northern Baja Pacific persistent cold water cell
Ensenada, BC	63°F	Steady	Northern Baja Pacific southern current influence
Erendira, BC	59°F	Steady	Northern Baja Pacific vertical mixing
Guerrero Negro, BCS	69°F	Warming	Mid Baja Pacific tidal exchange moderating temps
La Paz, BCS	79°F	Warming	Southern Gulf of California deep basin thermal mass
Loreto, BCS	77°F	Warming	Central Gulf of California surface gain
Los Barriles, BCS	80°F	Steady	Southern Gulf of California blue water push
Mulege, BCS	76°F	Steady	Central Gulf of California solar gain in Concepción
Playas de Tijuana, BC	64°F	Warming	Northern Baja Pacific cold current influence
Puertecitos, BC	74°F	Warming	Northern Gulf of California shallow reach heating
Punta Abreojos, BCS	58°F	Steady	Mid Baja Pacific localized southern current
Rosarito Beach, BC	62°F	Steady	Northern Baja Pacific marine layer limiting gain
San Carlos, BCS	66°F	Steady	Southern Baja Pacific shelf water reacting to air
San Felipe, BC	73°F	Warming	Northern Gulf of California south wind pulse
San Juanico, BCS	61°F	Warming	Southern Baja Pacific long period swell mixing
Santa Rosalia, BCS	74°F	Warming	Central Gulf of California mirror-calm state
Santa Rosaliíta, BC	66°F	Warming	Central Baja Pacific northerly breeze baseline
Todos Santos, BCS	69°F	Steady	Southern Baja Pacific shift in local current