Daily Weather with Surf, Wind and Tropical Storm Forecasts
Daily Baja Weather Forecast
Tuesday 03 November 2026 06:30AM PDT
A strong dome of high pressure centered offshore, paired with dry desert air over the American Southwest, will control the weather patterns across much of the Baja peninsula in the days ahead.
This high-pressure setup will keep our usual cooling morning marine layer and coastal fog pushed completely away from northern Pacific beaches today, setting up an unusually bright and warm afternoon. Along the northern Baja Pacific coastline, light morning breezes from the east will give way to gentle afternoon sea breezes. However, persistent northwest winds will keep the immediate coast from radiatively cooling tonight, holding coastal communities warmer than usual through the evening.
Over on the eastern side of the peninsula, the Gulf of California will continue to act like a giant, warm moisture engine. While gusty winds have brought some welcome cooling to shallow northern waters, the central and southern Gulf remains bathwater hot. These superheated waters will continue to pump heavy tropical humidity right into southern and eastern communities, leaving shoreline towns feeling sticky, muggy and warm all afternoon and offering very little relief after dark.
Regional Forecast for Today
Baja California
Beaches along the Northern Baja Pacific will enjoy wide-open sunshine through most of the day, with clear skies stretching from the international border down through San Quintín. Tijuana will see mostly sunny skies and warm conditions with a few high clouds, though a weak disturbance brushing California will push in low cloud decks late this afternoon and evening, bringing a slight chance of light overnight drizzle. Rosarito Beach will stay warm and mostly sunny before low clouds roll in tonight. Ensenada will feel warm with a moderate afternoon sea breeze and a few late clouds. Farther south across the coastal plain of San Quintín, expect plenty of sunshine and very warm temperatures, with a steady northwest breeze keeping the air fresh during the day and preventing deep cooling tonight.
Inland valleys and desert basins will see clear skies and plenty of sunshine. Tecate will turn warm with increasing clouds arriving late tonight, while Cataviña and the central desert will feel very warm and dry under sunshine with light northeast canyon drainage. Mexicali will experience warm and sunny conditions alongside bone-dry desert air and a light southeasterly drift.
Up in the high country, Laguna Hanson will feel pleasantly cool to mild under crisp alpine sunshine, though it will turn quite cold overnight. San Pedro Mártir will remain mildly warm during the day with light westerly breezes, dropping down to a chilly night under clear mountain skies.
Along the upper Gulf of California, communities from San Felipe down through Puertecitos and Bahía San Luis Gonzaga will see clear blue skies and warm afternoon conditions. Steady northerly to north-northeasterly breezes will blow across the water, bringing pleasant warmth, slightly lower humidity and moderate coastal chop. Bahía de Los Ángeles will stay warm and sunny with light breezes coming off the water.
Baja California Sur
The southern state will see widespread sunshine to the north, giving way to deeper tropical moisture and cloud buildups farther south. Along the Mid Baja Pacific and Southern Baja Pacific, communities including Guerrero Negro, Vizcaíno, Bahía Asunción, Punta Abreojos and San Juanico will see full sunshine. Guerrero Negro will turn warm with a fresh afternoon sea breeze, while the agricultural fields of the Vizcaíno basin will become very warm under sunny skies. Bahía Asunción, Punta Abreojos and San Juanico will all turn very warm with fresh northwest breezes and powerful rolling ocean swells hitting the shoreline.
Along the central Gulf of California coastline, Santa Rosalía, Mulegé and Loreto will remain sunny to mostly sunny. Santa Rosalía and Mulegé will feel very warm with light coastal breezes, while Loreto turns very warm and muggy under mostly sunny skies with isolated clouds puffing up over the nearby peaks. Thick gulf moisture will keep these shoreline towns feeling quite sticky.
Across the southern plains, Ciudad Constitución will feel hot under mostly sunny skies with light afternoon breezes, while San Carlos turns very warm with noticeable maritime humidity and onshore afternoon winds.
Farther south toward La Paz, Los Barriles, Todos Santos and San José del Cabo, tropical air will dominate. La Paz will turn hot and muggy with mostly sunny skies and an afternoon sea breeze. Los Barriles will feel very warm and humid with fair-weather clouds over the water. Todos Santos will stay very warm along the Pacific slopes with heavy surf rolling ashore, while San José del Cabo will feel hot and very humid with afternoon cumulus clouds stacking up along the foothills.
National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Update
Eastern Pacific Tropical Outlook
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring a broad low-pressure area designated as INVEST 95E, spinning far to our southwest along the monsoon trough near 09°N 134°W.
This system is producing disorganized showers and scattered squalls, and forecasters give it a low chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next two days, but a likely chance of forming into a tropical cyclone later in the week. However, weather steering currents will carry this disturbance steadily toward the west-northwest across the open ocean and directly into the Central Pacific basin. There is zero threat of this system tracking anywhere near the Baja Peninsula.
Even with no tropical systems threatening land, deep tropical moisture trapped across the southern end of the peninsula will continue to fuel afternoon cloud buildups over the mountains. Meanwhile, powerful long-interval ocean swells generated across the distant open Pacific will keep rolling into our Pacific beaches all week long.
Marine and Nearshore Waters Summary
A persistent pressure gradient over the Pacific will generate lively conditions across coastal waters today through Wednesday. Along the Northern Baja Pacific, northwest winds will blow at 12 to 18 mph today and build to 18 to 23 mph tonight and Wednesday. Nearshore seas will run 5 to 7 feet today on a long 18-second period, building to 6 to 9 feet on a 16-second interval through Wednesday. West- and northwest-facing beaches will see powerful breaking surf and strong rip currents.
Along the Southern Baja Pacific, northwest winds will run 12 to 18 mph, building to 18 to 23 mph north of Cabo San Lázaro on Wednesday. Powerful long-period swells will produce waves of 6 to 8 feet with 18 to 19-second intervals today, building to 7 to 10 feet Wednesday night and creating dangerous shorebreak.
Over in the Gulf of California, the northern basin will see northwest winds at 12 to 18 mph today with short chop of 3 feet or less, dropping to light and variable breezes under 6 mph by Wednesday morning for exceptionally smooth boating. The central and southern Gulf will experience fresh northwest breezes of 18 to 23 mph today with seas of 2 to 4 feet in the middle channels and 4 to 6 feet in the south, before winds drop light and variable under 6 mph by Wednesday afternoon, leaving the water glassy and calm. At the entrance to the Gulf, seas of 4 to 6 feet will build to 5 to 7 feet on Wednesday in long-period swells arriving every 17 to 18 seconds.
7-Day Forecast
Wednesday and Thursday will see high pressure rebuild firmly across the northern part of the peninsula, quickly clearing out any lingering coastal clouds and keeping northern beaches warm and sunny while inland valleys heat up under dry air.
By Friday and through the weekend, an amplifying high-pressure ridge along the West Coast will turn the winds offshore, kicking off a hot and dry Santa Ana pattern. This will bring gusty down-slope winds, driving extreme desert drying and very warm to hot afternoons right down to the northern Pacific beaches while completely suppressing the marine layer.
Farther south, warm and humid conditions will hold steady across Baja California Sur through the entire week. Bathwater hot sea temperatures along the southern Gulf and the Cape region will keep nights balmy and sticky, with afternoon clouds gathering over the mountains and bringing daily chances for isolated showers and thunder through the weekend.
Looking out into early next week, open Pacific ocean swells will gradually ease along our west coast, while northern areas begin to see Santa Ana winds relax back into gentle coastal sea breezes.
NE Pacific Marine Report
Developing Marine Patterns
A firm pressure gradient established between high pressure offshore over the Pacific and continental ridging across the southwestern desert will shape our peninsular waters today. This setup preserves a steady, moderate northwesterly flow streaming down the Northern Baja Pacific and Central Baja Pacific through tonight before freshening further mid-week.
Along the northern coastline, the absence of a morning marine layer leaves beaches wide open to bright sunshine as inland heating pulls gentle afternoon sea breezes ashore. Ocean temperatures continue to exhibit an intense contrast across the peninsula: localized coastal upwelling keeps the nearshore waters of the Northern Baja Pacific on the cool to mild side, while waters along the mid-peninsula Pacific and across the central and southern Gulf of California remain unseasonably warm. South of the 26th parallel down to the Cape, nearshore sea surface conditions remain bathwater hot, acting as a massive thermal engine that keeps coastal dew points elevated.
Looking out across the wider eastern Pacific basin, forecasters are monitoring a broad low-pressure area designated as INVEST 95E along the monsoon trough well to the southwest. The system is producing disorganized showers and squally weather, with environmental conditions favoring a steady west-northwestward track that will carry it directly into the Central Pacific basin later this week.
This tropical disturbance poses zero threat to peninsular shores, though powerful long-period swells generated across the open ocean will continue pulsing up our Pacific coastline, while the Gulf of California will see gusty morning chop ease into relaxed boating conditions by Wednesday.
Regional Marine Reports
Northern Baja Pacific
Waters from the international border down past San Quintín to Punta Eugenia will enjoy clear horizons today, with dry air completely scouring out the morning marine stratus. Toward the late afternoon and evening, a passing shortwave will introduce broken low cloud decks into the border beaches, bringing a slight chance of light overnight mist before scattering out quickly by early morning. Nearshore winds will blow out of the northwest at 10 to 15 knots, freshening overnight to 15 to 20 knots. Coastal sea temperatures remain brisk and cool from Eréndira down to Cabo San Quintín due to persistent upwelling. Nearshore seas will run 5 to 7 feet on a long 18-second period today, building up to 6 to 9 feet on a 16-second interval through Wednesday.
Southern Baja Pacific
From Guerrero Negro and Bahía Asunción south through Punta Abreojos, San Juanico and Todos Santos, sunny skies will prevail as stable, dry air blocks marine fog development. Offshore winds from the northwest to north will blow at 10 to 15 knots, easing into pleasant afternoon sea breezes along nearshore beaches. Ocean temperatures along the mid-peninsula Pacific remain very warm to bathwater warm under Super El Niño influence. Nearshore seas will run 6 to 8 feet with a long 18 to 19-second swell period today, building slightly higher on Wednesday before gradually subsiding later in the week.
Northern Gulf of California
Across the northern basin from San Felipe and Puertecitos down to Bahía San Luis Gonzaga, clear skies and warm afternoon sunshine dominate. Fresh north-northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots have driven active surface mixing, knocking shallow sea surface temperatures down into pleasantly warm territory. Open waters will see moderate chop with short-period seas running 3 feet or less today, before winds drop to light and variable under 5 knots by Wednesday morning for exceptionally smooth cruising.
Southern Gulf of California
Across the central and southern Gulf, including Santa Rosalía, Mulegé, Loreto and La Paz, sunny to mostly sunny skies will prevail with scattered fair-weather clouds stacking up along the eastern foothills of the sierra. Winds will blow out of the northwest at 15 to 20 knots today, generating moderate wind chop in the central channels and open southern seas running 4 to 6 feet on a 14-second period. Conditions will ease down to 10 to 15 knots tonight and fall light and variable under 5 knots by Wednesday afternoon, leaving bathwater hot waters glassy and calm.
Los Cabos
Waters surrounding Cabo San Lucas, San José del Cabo and the East Cape will see tropical conditions with bright sunshine and afternoon cloud buildups over the mountains. Moderate northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots today will give way to gentle afternoon coastal sea breezes. Nearshore water temperatures remain bathwater hot, maintaining very humid coastal air. Seas will run 4 to 6 feet in open passages before settling to 5 to 7 feet on Wednesday in long-period southwest to west swells arriving on a 17 to 18-second interval, creating fun, rolling surf along exposed south-facing breaks.
Regional Offshore Wind & Wave Summary
Offshore Region | Wind Direction & Speed | Significant Wave Height | Dominant Wave Period |
Unit | (kt) | (ft) | (seconds) |
US-Mex Border to 30N (Within 60 nm) | NW 10 to 15 | 5 to 7 | 18 |
30N to Punta Eugenia (Within 250 nm) | NW to N 10 to 15 | 6 to 8 | 19 |
Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro | NW to N 10 to 15 | 6 to 8 | 18 |
Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas | NW to N 10 to 15 | 6 to 8 | 19 |
Northern Gulf of California | NW to N 10 to 15 | ≤ 3 | 5 |
Central Gulf of California | NW 15 to 20 | 2 to 4 | 6 |
Southern Gulf of California | NW 15 to 20 | 4 to 6 | 14 |
Gulf Entrance (North of 20N) | NW to N 10 to 15 | 4 to 6 | 14 |
Marine Warnings and Hazards
Offshore Wind and Sea Hazards
Moderate northwest winds will keep sea conditions choppy along the Northern Baja Pacific and Central Baja Pacific today, with winds ramping up to 15 to 20 knots tonight into Wednesday. Central and Southern Gulf channels will experience fresh northwest breezes of 15 to 20 knots today, kicking up moderate chop before winds fall light and variable by Wednesday afternoon. Mariners running open Pacific routes should plan for steeper, building seas mid-week.
Swell and Surf Warnings
Powerful, long-interval swells arriving every 16 to 19 seconds will produce heavy shorebreak and strong rip currents along all exposed west- and northwest-facing Pacific beaches. While offshore wave heights remain manageable at 5 to 8 feet today, those long wave periods mean sets will focus considerable energy in shallow coastal shoals and bar crossings. Anglers, surfers and small craft navigating harbor entrances should exercise caution.
Extended Outlook
A weak onshore disturbance brushing the northern international border will exit rapidly to the east tonight, allowing high pressure to rebuild firmly over our coastal waters on Wednesday.
Along the Northern Baja Pacific, an amplifying upper-level ridge building along the West Coast Friday and Saturday will transition local pressure gradients into an offshore Santa Ana pattern over the weekend. This shift will push hot, extremely dry desert air all the way to the coastline, knocking down nearshore humidity and burning off any coastal stratus, while open Pacific swells gradually ease.
Across the southern reaches of the peninsula, INVEST 95E will continue its long track into the Central Pacific without threatening local landmasses. Deep tropical moisture will stay trapped across southern Baja California Sur through the weekend, keeping afternoon convective clouds active over the cordillera while bathwater hot sea surface temperatures preserve balmy overnight conditions along the East Cape and the Gulf entrance.
Seawater Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
| Location | Temp | Trend | Notes |
| Bahía Asunción, BCS | 80.5°F | Steady | Mid Baja Pacific persistent upwelling under NW flow |
| Ba. Los Angeles, BC | 80.6°F | Steady | Northern Gulf of California tidal channel mixing |
| Ba. San Ignacio, BCS | 82.8°F | Cooling | Mid Baja Pacific shallow lagoon outflow stabilization |
| Bahia Gonzaga, BC | 80.8°F | Cooling | Northern Gulf of California NW breeze wind mixing |
| Cabo San Lucas, BCS | 87.6°F | Warming | Tropical surface water push at the peninsular tip |
| Cabo San Quintín, BC | 76.5°F | Warming | Northern Baja Pacific persistent vertical mixing cell |
| Ensenada, BC | 74.3°F | Steady | Stable coastal profile inside Bahía de Todos Santos |
| Erendira, BC | 75.9°F | Steady | Northern Baja Pacific persistent vertical mixing |
| Guerrero Negro, BCS | 76.8°F | Steady | Mid Baja Pacific high tidal exchange moderating lagoon waters |
| La Paz, BCS | 84.7°F | Cooling | Southern Gulf of California deep basin thermal mass stability |
| Loreto, BCS | 84.9°F | Cooling | Central Gulf of California surface heat retention |
| Los Barriles, BCS | 86.4°F | Steady | Southern Gulf of California fresh NW breeze wind mixing |
| Mulege, BCS | 83.7°F | Steady | Central Gulf of California minor localized breeze mixing |
| Playas de Tijuana, BC | 75.9°F | Cooling | Northern Baja Pacific boundary current stability |
| Puertecitos, BC | 79.3°F | Cooling | Northern Gulf of California NW wind mixing across shallow shelf |
| Punta Abreojos, BCS | 80.8°F | Steady | Mid Baja Pacific localized cold upwelling anchor holding firm |
| Rosarito Beach, BC | 75.0°F | Steady | Northern Baja Pacific coastal boundary layer stability |
| San Carlos, BCS | 83.5°F | Warming | Southern Baja Pacific shelf water reacting to ambient air |
| San Felipe, BC | 79.0°F | Cooling | Northern Gulf of California shallow basin wind mixing under NW flow |
| San Juanico, BCS | 82.6°F | Warming | Southern Baja Pacific long period NW swell column mixing |
| Santa Rosalia, BCS | 84.2°F | Steady | Central Gulf of California surface heat retention |
| Santa Rosaliíta, BC | 77.0°F | Steady | Central Baja Pacific northerly breeze baseline holding firm |
| Todos Santos, BCS | 86.6°F | Steady | Southern Baja Pacific NW swell bringing subsurface water exchange |
Tropical Storm Weather Forecast
CURRENT ACTIVE SYSTEMS
Offshore Waters Forecast (E Pacific Offshore of Mexico)
Windy 10 Day Forecast
GFS Model
ECMWF Model (European)
Atmospheric Pressure Changes
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's)
