Daily Weather with Surf, Wind and Tropical Storm Forecasts
Daily Baja Weather Forecast
Thursday 13 August 2026 6:00AM PDTÂ
Current Weather Conditions
An upper-level trough resting off the California coast continues to enforce a mid-level southwesterly flow across our region today, actively pushing the main core of monsoonal moisture back toward the east while drawing a stream of high-altitude tropical clouds overhead from Tropical Storm Hernan far to the southwest.
On the Baja Pacific side of the peninsula, persistent coastal upwelling maintains a cool water baseline from Eréndira through Cabo San QuintÃn, keeping a localized thermal contrast right at the beach line. Because daytime heating across the interior mountains and valleys is creating a rapid land-sea temperature delta, the marine layer along Northern Baja will burn off toward the immediate beaches by mid-to-late morning, opening up mostly sunny skies for our coastal communities.
Over on the eastern side, the Gulf of California continues to act as a massive heat engine, with sea surface temperatures holding an exceptionally warm baseline across the shallow basins. This elevated water temperature is keeping surface dew points very sticky, fueling muggy air, elevated heat indices, and potential afternoon thunderstorm instability across the southern peninsular mountain ridges.
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Regional Forecast for Today
Baja California
Across the northern half of the peninsula, morning cloudiness along the Baja Pacific coast will clear back toward the immediate beaches by mid-to-late morning, opening up mostly sunny skies from Tijuana, Rosarito Beach, and Ensenada down through San QuintÃn and El Rosario. Daytime air right along the surf line will feel pleasantly cool to comfortable, supported by steady westerly to west-northwesterly coastal breezes.
Moving just a few miles inland, solar heating will cause conditions to quickly turn much warmer, while interior desert corridors like Tecate and Mexicali will feel hot to a lot hotter under mostly sunny skies, accompanied by light westerly to north-westerly wind draws. High mountain zones like Laguna Hanson and San Pedro Mártir will experience comfortable air, moderate afternoon breezes, and clear to partly cloudy conditions.
Over along the upper Gulf of California, communities including San Felipe, Puertecitos, and BahÃa San Luis Gonzaga will endure a very warm and heavily muggy day under partly cloudy skies, with light to moderate east-southeasterly winds pushing a surface chop across shallow nearshore waters.
Baja California Sur
The southern half of the peninsula remains locked into a warm, tropical setup for the day. Along the Mid and Southern Baja Pacific coasts—spanning Guerrero Negro, VizcaÃno, BahÃa Asunción, Punta Abreojos, San Juanico, and San Carlos—skies will range from mostly sunny to clear. Air temperatures will feel warm to much warmer as you head south, with steady afternoon winds out of the northwest to west-southwest keeping coastal breezes active while background swells maintain manageable ocean conditions.
Over on the eastern coast, exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures will keep Santa RosalÃa, Mulegé, and Loreto feeling hot and heavily humid under sunny to mostly sunny skies with gentle southeasterly to easterly winds.
Further south, high-altitude tropical moisture will combine with intense solar heating across La Paz, Los Barriles, Todos Santos, and Cabo San Lucas. Expect partly cloudy skies that will feel hot and sticky, with daytime heat triggering a strong possibility for localized afternoon convective thunderstorm development and rain showers over nearby mountain ridges that could drift toward surrounding coastal sectors through the evening.
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National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Update
Eastern Pacific Tropical Outlook
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Depression Eight-E into Tropical Storm Hernan, located roughly 1,460 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Hernan is creeping westward over open water at a very slow pace and poses zero threat to land. Strong westerly wind shear aloft and dry surrounding air are expected to prevent significant strengthening, causing the system to diminish into a remnant low within the next 48 hours.
The primary effect on the Baja peninsula from this system will be thin, fanning cirrus clouds streaming overhead across central and southern skies. Offshore, long-period south to southwest swells will maintain gentle to moderate combined seas across the Pacific oceanfront, while localized pressure draws inside the Gulf of California will maintain light to moderate surface chop along the eastern shores.
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7-Day Forecast
Over the next couple of days, the coastal marine layer along the Baja Pacific side will maintain its predictable rhythm of low morning stratus followed by late-morning clearing, leaving beaches comfortably mild under mostly sunny afternoon skies. Meanwhile, inland desert corridors, central mountain valleys, and the Gulf of California coastline will remain in a very warm to hot setup, feeling noticeably muggy under high surface moisture.
As we head through Friday and into the weekend, low pressure off the California coast will move west as high pressure to the east gradually expands back over the region. This shift will allow temperatures to slowly warm across inland valleys, mountain passes, and desert basins. High-level tropical cloud cover will clear out toward Friday morning, giving way to brighter skies while boundary-layer humidity keeps coastal mornings feeling quite muggy.
By early next week, a slow and steady warming trend will continue across the interior, keeping desert locations hot while the coastal Pacific zones stay moderated by consistent onshore sea breezes. Beachgoers and mariners should expect manageable ocean conditions along the Pacific beaches, though long-period swell energy and afternoon thermal winds over the Gulf will maintain localized surface chop and breaking surf along exposed outer points.
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NE Pacific Marine Report
Developing Marine Patterns
A moderate pressure gradient established between high pressure stationed far offshore in the northeast Pacific and low pressure anchored across northern Mexico will act as the primary driver of offshore marine conditions along the western side of the peninsula today. This gentle to moderate synoptic setup will maintain mostly steady northwesterly breezes across the open Pacific offshore waters. At the same time, high-altitude tropical moisture streaming from newly formed Tropical Storm Hernan—centered far to the southwest near 18.1°N, 131.9°W—will continue to fan out cloud cover across central and southern portions of the peninsular landmass. Seawater conditions across the region display a sharp contrast, featuring elevated thermal baselines reaching  to  across the Gulf of California that transition to active, cold upwelling cells hovering near  to  along the northern Pacific shoreline.
Along the Pacific oceanfront, waters off Northern Baja will see manageable conditions dominated by a moderate southwest to west swell with dominant periods holding around 15 to 16 seconds. Further south, open waters remain free of land-threatening tropical systems, with Tropical Storm Hernan expected to diminish into a post-tropical remnant low over open ocean within 48 hours under strong wind shear. Meanwhile, localized pressure dynamics over northern Mexico will drive periodic moderate southerly breeze surges across the northern Gulf of California, generating light to localized moderate surface chop.
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Regional Marine Reports
Northern Baja Pacific
Offshore waters from the international border south past San QuintÃn to El Rosario will experience a shallow marine layer this morning that will clear back toward the immediate beaches by mid-to-late morning. Winds will hold out of the west to northwest at gentle speeds, generally running between 6 and 14 mph from Tijuana through Ensenada, while San QuintÃn sees breezes picking up to 7 to 15 mph during the afternoon. Water temperatures in the immediate nearshore zones will remain in a cool range near San QuintÃn and Eréndira at  to , while warming to a slightly higher  to  profile further north near Tijuana and Ensenada. Long-period swells out of the south to southwest with 15-to-16-second periods will maintain combined seas of 2 to 4 feet nearshore, holding steady at 4 to 6 feet further offshore.
Baja California Sur Pacific
Along the central and southern Pacific coastlines from Guerrero Negro down through San Juanico and Todos Santos, marine environments will see a mixture of sun and high-level tropical cloudiness, with afternoon thunderstorms possible near the southern tip. Winds from Guerrero Negro to San Juanico will blow out of the northwest to west at 10 to 20 mph, while near Todos Santos, winds will shift to a west-southwesterly flow at 7 to 13 mph. Seawater conditions will feel significantly warmer as you move south past Punta Eugenia, with ambient air profiles remaining in the  to  range. Combined offshore seas will hold steady at 3 to 5 feet, driven by long-period southern ocean background swells.
Northern Gulf of California
Conditions across the upper basin near San Felipe, Puertecitos, and San Luis Gonzaga will stay in a very warm and muggy range today under partly cloudy skies. The regional thermal gradient over the interior deserts will draw moderate south to southeasterly winds over the northern Gulf, with speeds running 8 to 14 mph near San Felipe and 10 to 18 mph off Gonzaga Bay. Seawater temperatures in this shallow basin will hold an exceptionally warm  to  baseline, and this wind gradient will push a surface chop across open waters, keeping local seas running around 2 to 4 feet with short 5-second wave periods.
Southern Gulf of California
The lower basin, including the offshore waters surrounding Loreto, Mulegé, and La Paz, will experience partly to mostly sunny skies as mid-level tropical moisture streams overhead, bringing a risk of scattered afternoon thunderstorms near La Paz. Winds off Loreto will blow gently out of the southeast at 6 to 14 mph, while Mulegé sees southeasterly breezes at 8 to 14 mph. Near La Paz, afternoon winds will originate out of the southwest at 8 to 16 mph as local thermal breezes kick in. Water temperatures across the central and southern Gulf will hold at very warm  to  levels, generating high coastal humidity, though gentle marine breezes will keep open waters fairly smooth with seas running 1 to 3 feet.
Los Cabos
At the extreme tip of the peninsula, coastal waters off Cabo San Lucas and Los Barriles will see a mix of sun and tropical clouds, with afternoon thunderstorms likely building over nearby mountain ridges and drifting toward the coast. Winds around Cabo San Lucas will blow from the west at 10 to 18 mph, while Los Barriles experiences east-southeasterly flow at 7 to 12 mph. Water temperatures at the ocean confluence will remain in an exceptionally warm  to  range, keeping air conditions feeling hot and humid. Offshore seas closer to shore will stay very manageable at 3 to 5 feet.
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Regional Offshore Wind & Wave Summary
Offshore Region | Wind Direction & Speed | Significant Wave Height | Dominant Wave Period |
Unit | (kt) | (ft) | (seconds) |
Mexico Border to 30N (Within 60 nm) | W-NW 10 | 2 to 4 | 15 |
30N to Punta Eugenia (Within 250 nm) | NW 10 | 4 to 6 | 15 |
Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro | NW 10 | 3 to 5 | 15 |
Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas | NW-N 10 | 3 to 5 | 15 |
Northern Gulf of California | S 10 to 15 | 2 to 4 | 5 |
Central Gulf of California | SE-S 10 | ≤ 3 | 10 |
Southern Gulf of California | W 10 | 2 to 4 | 15 |
Marine Warnings and Hazards
Offshore Wind and Sea Hazards
Real-time offshore maritime analysis from the National Hurricane Center highlights a gentle to moderate pressure gradient across the Mexican offshore zones, keeping overall coastal hazards minimal. Small craft operators navigating the northern Gulf of California should exercise light caution during afternoon hours, as localized southerly breeze surges reaching 10 to 15 knots will generate short, steep chop across open waters.
Swell and Surf Warnings
Long-period south to southwest swells with wave periods ranging from 15 to 17 seconds will continue to cross the Pacific offshore waters of Baja California today. While overall wave heights remain moderate at 3 to 6 feet, the long wave periods will produce localized beach break energy and moderate rip currents along exposed south and west-facing beaches. Coastal mariners and beachgoers should remain observant when navigating shallow inlets or exposed shorelines.
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Seawater Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
| Location | Temp | Trend | Notes |
| BahÃa Asunción, BCS | 80°F | Warming | Mid Baja Pacific active surface warming under light wind profile |
| Ba. Los Angeles, BC | 86°F | Cooling | Northern Gulf of California tidal channel breeze mixing |
| Ba. San Ignacio, BCS | 85°F | Steady | Mid Baja Pacific shallow lagoon thermal stabilization |
| Bahia Gonzaga, BC | 87°F | Cooling | Northern Gulf of California minor wind mixing easing surface heat |
| Cabo San Lucas, BCS | 88°F | Steady | Southern Baja Pacific deep ocean boundary stability at tip |
| Cabo San QuintÃn, BC | 69°F | Steady | Northern Baja Pacific persistent cold upwelling cell holding firm |
| Ensenada, BC | 75°F | Cooling | Northern Baja Pacific slight coastal cooling inside BahÃa de Todos Santos |
| Erendira, BC | 69°F | Steady | Northern Baja Pacific active vertical mixing cell holding baseline |
| Guerrero Negro, BCS | 79°F | Cooling | Mid Baja Pacific high tidal exchange moderating lagoon waters |
| La Paz, BCS | 87°F | Warming | Southern Gulf of California deep basin thermal mass retention |
| Loreto, BCS | 87°F | Cooling | Central Gulf of California minor localized breeze mixing |
| Los Barriles, BCS | 88°F | Steady | Southern Gulf of California stable surface heat retention |
| Mulege, BCS | 89°F | Steady | Central Gulf of California surface heat retention holding high |
| Playas de Tijuana, BC | 75°F | Cooling | Northern Baja Pacific boundary current thermal flux |
| Puertecitos, BC | 89°F | Steady | Northern Gulf of California shallow basin high thermal baseline |
| Punta Abreojos, BCS | 81°F | Steady | Mid Baja Pacific localized thermal anchor holding firm |
| Rosarito Beach, BC | 70°F | Cooling | Northern Baja Pacific marine layer cloud cover limiting solar gain |
| San Carlos, BCS | 83°F | Steady | Southern Baja Pacific shelf water reacting to ambient air |
| San Felipe, BC | 89°F | Steady | Northern Gulf of California shallow basin thermal baseline |
| San Juanico, BCS | 83°F | Steady | Southern Baja Pacific long period swell column stabilization |
| Santa Rosalia, BCS | 87°F | Warming | Central Gulf of California thermal mass solar accumulation |
| Santa RosaliÃta, BC | 73°F | Steady | Central Baja Pacific northerly breeze baseline holding firm |
| Todos Santos, BCS | 87°F | Steady | Southern Baja Pacific swell maintaining stable coastal water |
Tropical Storm Weather Forecast
CURRENT ACTIVE SYSTEM
Offshore Waters Forecast (E Pacific Offshore of Mexico)
Windy 10 Day Forecast
GFS Model
ECMWF Model (European)
Atmospheric Pressure Changes
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's)
