Daily Weather with Surf, Wind and Tropical Storm Forecasts
Daily Baja Weather Forecast
Friday 12 June 2026 6:00AM PDT
Current Weather Conditions
The synoptic layout across the Northeast Pacific is heavily impacted by an unstable, highly reactive atmospheric boundary layer interacting with an intense continental thermal low pressure anchored over the interior desert basins. High pressure situated well offshore continues to try and feed a cool maritime air mass toward the west coast, but a massive reservoir of deep mid-level tropical moisture between the 500 mb and 700 mb layers is actively overriding the region. This unique atmospheric setup is completely disrupting the typical marine layer, causing the lower coastal stratus to thin out and clear much faster than standard computer models initialize.
This accelerated morning clearing opens the door to rapid solar radiation, causing surface temperatures to rise quickly across the coastal plains. However, this rapid heating is also triggering intense vertical lifting. As the super-heated air mass from the landmass collides with the cold air aloft and the high-dewpoint moisture spilling over the mountains, it is generating severe convective instability. Competing weather forces are locked in a tug-of-war as a strong, long-period southerly background swell train streams up the exposed Pacific coastline, while a persistent southeasterly wind track up the Gulf of California acts as a massive moisture pump, fueling widespread afternoon cloud development and sudden convective rain hazards across the interior.
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National Hurricane Center (NHC) Morning Update
Current Tropical Status
In their morning briefings, the National Hurricane Center confirms that the Eastern North Pacific basin is entirely quiet today. There are currently no active tropical cyclones, depressions, or storms tracking across the western side of the peninsula, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected anywhere across the basin over the next seven days.
Tropical Weather Outlook
While the Pacific side remains completely free of tropical cyclone threats, forecasters are heavily monitoring a broad area of low pressure that is forecast to develop over northern Central America and southern Mexico later today and through the weekend. This major tropical disturbance is actively forming over the western Caribbean, the Yucatán Peninsula, and the Bay of Campeche. The NHC warns that this slow-moving system has a high probability of triggering an extensive, multi-day heavy rainfall event across southern Mexico. This deep tropical moisture envelope will bring widespread flooding and severe visibility hazards to the interior southern states by early next week, though it poses no direct threat to the Baja peninsula.
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Regional Forecast for Today
Baja California
Northern sections of the peninsula will experience dramatic microclimate variations today due to the extreme atmospheric volatility slinging across the territory. Along the Northern Baja Pacific coastline, communities from Tijuana and Rosarito Beach down through Ensenada and San QuintÃn are seeing early clearing of the low stratus, allowing daytime temperatures to turn warm and comfortable.
However, because of overriding mid-level moisture, skies will remain partly cloudy to mostly cloudy between noon and the late afternoon. This boundary layer interaction is highly volatile; San QuintÃn and Tijuana will see a mid-day cloud return with a high probability of partly cloudy rain showers before late-afternoon solar heating kicks back in. Winds across these western beaches will pulse moderately out of the west-northwest to northwest at 6 to 14 mph, keeping nearshore sea states slightly agitated due to a lingering northwest swell mixing with the background southerly swell train.
In sharp contrast, the inland valleys around Tecate will turn a lot hotter under partly cloudy skies with westerly winds at 8 to 14 mph. Farther east across the mountains, the Mexicali Valley is entering an exceptionally hot phase as maximum solar heating takes full effect on the desert floor, pushing temperatures into a blistering bracket under partly cloudy skies with southeasterly winds at 10 to 16 mph.
Along the upper Gulf of California, towns like San Felipe, Puertecitos, and BahÃa San Luis Gonzaga are experiencing a much warmer to very hot day. High dewpoints near 55% are mixing with the intense heat, triggering active convective cloud blocks and bringing a high probability of partly cloudy rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds will blow fresh out of the east to south-southeast at 6 to 18 mph, generating a light surface chop across the shallow water channels, with local seas running 3 feet or less.
High-elevation areas like San Pedro Mártir are locked under thick clouds with thunderstorms possible this afternoon.
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Baja California Sur
The southern half of the peninsula is split between a highly stable southern zone and an unstable, moisture-laden central territory. Along the Central and Southern Baja Pacific margins, including Guerrero Negro, BahÃa Asunción, Punta Abreojos, and San Juanico, sky conditions are highly unstable today. Thick mid-level convective clouds and active thunderstorm cells are streaming across the region, keeping skies mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.
These western sectors will feel warm to a bit warmer, but the atmosphere is primed for partly cloudy rain and thunderstorms possible over the inner banks. Winds will blow fresh out of the west to northwest at 10 to 22 mph, maintaining a noticeable surface chop, while a highly energized, long-period southerly swell train keeps combined open-water seas running at 5 to 7 feet offshore. Inland plains like Ciudad Constitución will turn exceptionally hot under mostly sunny skies, with active afternoon wind gusts tracking from the west-northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Along the Gulf of California coastline, from Santa RosalÃa and Mulegé down to Loreto, conditions will turn significantly hot and incredibly humid as the warm gulf waters prevent any low-level cooling. Skies will remain partly cloudy to mostly sunny, but isolated thunderstorms are possible over the mountain ridges, with a direct chance of a shower fracturing the afternoon marine boundary near Mulegé. Winds around Loreto and Mulegé will remain light to moderate out of the southeast to east-southeast at 6 to 20 mph, keeping nearshore marine conditions smooth and highly favorable for local boaters, with internal channel seas running gentle at 3 feet or less.
At the southern tip, La Paz will be sunny and significantly hot with southwesterly winds at 10 to 18 mph. Todos Santos will remain sunny and warm with a westerly breeze, while Cabo San Lucas and Los Barriles can expect to face a much warmer afternoon under sunny skies. Cabo San Lucas will experience fresh west-northwesterly winds raking the Cape zone at 15 to 25 mph, while Los Barriles sees a lighter southeasterly to east-northeasterly flow at 6 to 12 mph, keeping coastal seas highly manageable closer to shore.
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7-Day Regional Forecast
Widespread convective volatility dominates the opening of the extended period as high-dewpoint Gulf moisture continues to spill over the mountain ridges, maintaining mostly cloudy skies and localized rain threats across the northern and central western beaches while interior desert spaces drive into an exceptionally hot bracket.
As the weekend progresses, the inland thermal low pressure will peak in intensity over the desert basins, tightening cross-peninsular pressure gradients and triggering fresh afternoon wind gusts along both the Pacific outer coast and the internal Gulf channels, forcing a light to moderate surface chop over nearshore waters while weather conditions clear to mostly sunny, much warmer, and very hot across the southern half of the peninsula.
Early next week features a subtle weakening of the offshore ridge as a weak low-pressure system approaches the Pacific Northwest, expected to allow a slightly deeper marine layer to re-establish itself overnight along the northern western valleys, bringing morning low clouds and a noticeable cooling trend across the northern sections of the peninsula while the southern half remains hot and clear under absolute sunshine.
Settled, tranquil conditions are forecast to return by the middle of next week as the upper-level instability slides completely eastward, allowing gentle westerly wind tracks to keep the Pacific beach communities in a highly comfortable range with beautiful, unbroken sunshine across the central and southern regions while the northern deserts continue to experience intense seasonal warmth with no tropical moisture threats in sight.
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Marine Conditions
A weak pressure gradient currently prevails across the offshore waters within 250 nautical miles of Mexico, dictating a highly distinct early-season atmospheric footprint across the region. Rather than the strong, persistent northwesterly wind fields typical of historical seasonal patterns, light to gentle winds dominate the open Pacific waters today. This absence of a sharp offshore pressure ridge has minimized local, wind-driven wave building, leaving the open ocean environment exceptionally quiet at the surface.
The main synoptic driver across the southern boundary is the monsoon trough, which extends along a line from 16N101W to 10N120W to 09N140W. This major low-pressure belt is generating numerous blocks of moderate convection across the deep tropical Pacific waters. Closer to the coast, a weak upper-level low-pressure system continues to move slowly westward and away from the central peninsula, slinging high-level cloud sheets and thick mid-level moisture bands directly across the landmass into the adjacent southwestern desert passes.
Offshore water temperatures reveal a highly dramatic regional thermal divide. Down at the southern cape confluence and extending into the lower channels, sea surface temperatures are pinned at a much warmer, near-tropical baseline. Conversely, a robust pool of cool water remains firmly locked along the central and northern coastal shelves, maintaining an incredibly cool, sharp upwelling boundary right at the shoreline.
Rather than local wind-seas, the open Pacific waters off Mexico are currently dominated by an organized, long-period southerly swell train. This highly energized background energy is keeping seas running in a stable range of 5 to 7 feet across the open outer waters. Concurrently, a gentle to moderate southerly to southwesterly wind flow prevails inside the Gulf of California, channeling elevated moisture northward up the basin while keeping local inner-channel seas highly compressed at 3 feet or less.
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Regional Marine Reports
Northern Baja Pacific
Offshore maritime zones stretching from the international border down toward El Rosario are experiencing overcast to mostly cloudy sky conditions, as a compressed marine layer interacts with overriding mid-level moisture. Forecast air temperatures are holding in a cool range of 72°F to 75°F from Tijuana through Rosarito, warming slightly to a range of 76°F to 79°F near Ensenada and San QuintÃn. Winds are holding light to gentle, averaging west-northwesterly to westerly at 6 to 12 mph across the northernmost sectors, while afternoon winds along the San QuintÃn coast pulse slightly fresher at 10 to 16 mph out of the west. Coastal sea surface temperatures remain stuck in an incredibly cool band, driven by persistent nearshore upwelling. Combined significant wave heights are averaging 5 to 7 feet over the open waters, dominated by the long-period background southerly swell mixing with a light, minor northwest swell.
Central and Southern Baja Pacific
Along the mid-peninsula and southern coastal waters on the Pacific side, marine conditions remain highly reactive. Atmospheric volatility is elevated as mid-level convective moisture throws variable, thick cloud bands across the open ocean, resulting in mostly cloudy profiles from Guerrero Negro down to San Juanico, where forecast air temperatures range from 74°F to 78°F. Further down the coast near San Carlos and Todos Santos, sky conditions feel partly cloudy and a bit warmer, with forecast air temperatures climbing into a range of 76°F to 81°F. The boundary layer is unstable, generating localized pockets of light rain and thunderstorm risks over the inner banks. Winds across these sectors are tracking northwesterly to westerly at 10 to 22 mph, occasionally gusting higher near convective cells. Combined seas remain stable at 5 to 7 feet in deep water, heavily influenced by the primary southerly swell train.
Northern Gulf of California
Beside the upper basin near San Felipe and Puertecitos, conditions this morning are dominated by a very sticky, warm thermal profile. Skies remain mostly cloudy as the intense inland thermal engine pulls high-dewpoint Gulf air over the coastline, pushing forecast air temperatures into a sweltering range of 97°F to 102°F. This interaction is triggering active convective cloud blocks and a high probability of isolated afternoon rain showers across the shallow water. Winds are blowing gentle to moderate out of the east-southeast to south-southeast at 6 to 12 mph near San Felipe and 7 to 14 mph near Puertecitos, while areas near San Luis Gonzaga see an easterly to northeasterly flow at 8 to 18 mph. This steady southeasterly moisture feed is generating a light surface chop across the shallow channels, with total wave heights remaining completely manageable at 3 feet or less.
Southern Gulf of California
The lower basin waters off Loreto, Mulegé, and La Paz are enjoying a highly stable morning under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. The thermal mass of the deep inner sea keeps the local air mass feeling a lot hotter than the exposed Pacific coast, sending forecast air temperatures into a range of 90°F to 95°F. Convective instability remains an active threat with thunderstorms possible over the mountain ridges later today. Winds are generally light to gentle, blowing from the southeast to east-southeast at 6 to 12 mph around Loreto, while turning northeasterly to easterly at 10 to 20 mph near Mulegé. Near La Paz, local afternoon winds originate from the southwest to west-southwest at 10 to 18 mph. Localized wind-seas across the southern Gulf channels are running gentle at 3 feet or less.
Los Cabos
At the extreme tip of the peninsula, open-water maritime conditions are highly favorable for local daytime operators. Sky conditions are keeping to a partly cloudy to sunny profile as high-level tropical moisture streams overhead. Coastal air temperatures feel much warmer as water temperatures at the confluence hold at near-tropical levels, allowing forecast air temperatures to reach a range of 82°F to 88°F. Winds are pulsing moderately out of the west to west-northwest at 15 to 25 mph near Cabo San Lucas, while the East Cape side near Los Barriles sees a lighter northeasterly breeze at 6 to 12 mph. Local coastal seas closer to shore are running highly manageable at 4 to 6 feet, with the primary southerly swell train blending smoothly with a weak northwest swell pulse offshore.
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Marine Warnings and Hazards
Offshore Swell and Surf Advisories
Real-time maritime data indicates that the energized southerly swell train migrating out of the southern hemisphere will remain the dominant sea-state driver over the next 24 hours. This long-period background swell is maintaining combined significant wave heights of 5 to 7 feet across all open, unsheltered Pacific sectors off the western coast of the peninsula.
Small craft operators and coastal mariners should exercise heightened awareness along all exposed points, outer reefs, and south-facing beaches from the international boundary region down through the southern cape. The arrival of these long wave periods will generate heavy, sweeping breaking surf and treacherous nearshore rip currents today. Beachgoers and light vessel operators should remain vigilant, as breaker heights will spike significantly along exposed shallow water bars and rocky shorelines.
Local Convective and Wind Hazards
While a weak pressure gradient is successfully limiting broad, hazardous gale-force wind fields across the open ocean, localized hazards remain highly active due to convective instability. Mariners operating inside the northern Gulf of California and along the central Pacific coastlines should prepare for sudden, erratic wind shifts and rapid visibility reductions to occur near active convective cloud towers.
Furthermore, evening wind pulses traveling out of the northwest and west are forecast to strengthen right along the immediate outer coastlines after dark, creating short-period, localized chop over the nearshore fishing banks. Inside the Gulf of California, shallow water channels will experience brief periods of moderate surface chop today where the incoming southeasterly wind flow directly conflicts with localized tidal currents.
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Seawater Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
| Location | Temp | Trend | Notes |
| BahÃa Asunción, BCS | 60°F | Warming | Mid Baja Pacific active upwelling experiencing slight solar warming |
| Ba. Los Angeles, BC | 77°F | Warming | Northern Gulf of California strong seasonal solar heat retention |
| Ba. San Ignacio, BCS | 68°F | Warming | Mid Baja Pacific shallow lagoon solar gain and outflow warming |
| Bahia Gonzaga, BC | 77°F | Warming | Northern Gulf of California shallow basin surface heating acceleration |
| Cabo San Lucas, BCS | 80°F | Cooling | Localized upwelling shift and cold Pacific current boundary line |
| Cabo San QuintÃn, BC | 64°F | Warming | Northern Baja Pacific minor relaxation of localized cold water cell |
| Ensenada, BC | 68°F | Warming | Inside BahÃa de Todos Santos responding to warm daytime inland air |
| Erendira, BC | 64°F | Warming | Northern Baja Pacific shallow coastal shelf experiencing minor warming |
| Guerrero Negro, BCS | 70°F | Warming | Mid Baja Pacific high tidal exchange delivering warmer lagoon waters |
| La Paz, BCS | 76°F | Steady | Southern Gulf of California deep basin thermal mass stability holding |
| Loreto, BCS | 81°F | Warming | Central Gulf of California aggressive tropical surface heat retention |
| Los Barriles, BCS | 83°F | Warming | Southern Gulf of California strong tropical blue water push northward |
| Mulege, BCS | 82°F | Warming | Central Gulf of California extreme solar gain in BahÃa de Concepción |
| Playas de Tijuana, BC | 67°F | Cooling | Northern Baja Pacific boundary current reacting to robust marine layer |
| Puertecitos, BC | 78°F | Warming | Northern Gulf of California shallow basin surface insulation climbing |
| Punta Abreojos, BCS | 62°F | Warming | Mid Baja Pacific localized cold upwelling anchor slightly moderating |
| Rosarito Beach, BC | 66°F | Steady | Northern Baja Pacific heavy morning marine layer limiting solar gain |
| San Carlos, BCS | 68°F | Warming | Southern Baja Pacific shelf water reacting rapidly to ambient air |
| San Felipe, BC | 78°F | Steady | Northern Gulf of California shallow basin thermal baseline holding firm |
| San Juanico, BCS | 66°F | Steady | Southern Baja Pacific long period swell column mixing stabilizing |
| Santa Rosalia, BCS | 80°F | Steady | Central Gulf of California solar gain matching light offshore mixing |
| Santa RosaliÃta, BC | 66°F | Warming | Central Baja Pacific northerly breeze weakening with minor solar gain |
| Todos Santos, BCS | 69°F | Warming | Southern Baja Pacific incoming swell mixing with warmer surface layers |
Tropical Storm Weather Forecast
CURRENT ACTIVE SYSTEM
CURRENT ACTIVE SYSTEM
Offshore Waters Forecast (E Pacific Offshore of Mexico)
Windy 10 Day Forecast
GFS Model
ECMWF Model (European)
Atmospheric Pressure Changes
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's)
