Daily Baja Weather Forecast
Friday 03 July 2026 6:10AM PDTÂ
Atmospheric Conditions
A dynamic macro-scale standoff is unfolding across the Northeast Pacific, serving as the grand conductor for the atmospheric behavior stretching from our international boundary lines all the way to the southern capes. High-altitude moisture debris from a decaying post-tropical vortex far to our west is currently being sheared directly eastward by upper-level steering currents, draping a high, diffuse filtering canopy over our northern and central horizons. This high cirrus layer is actively interrupting the overnight cooling mechanics of the lower atmosphere, fracturing the structural cohesion of the coastal marine layer and preventing dense, solid fog decks from anchoring along the shore. Consequently, immediate beach zones are set for an accelerated midday clearing trend as solar radiation punches through this thin, patchy shield. Simultaneously, an expansive continental heat dome centered over the interior is building westward, flexing its thermal muscles against the cold upwelling ocean currents along the Pacific margin.
Out on the open ocean, waters remain considerably agitated far offshore where the broad wind and wave footprint of the dissolving tropical low continues to ripple, pushing a steady, long-period northwest swell train toward our outer coastal reefs. Down at the southern tip of the peninsula, the local heat engine is receiving a major injection of premium fuel as a distinct surge of warm tropical water creeps northward around the cape confluence. On the sheltered eastern flank of the landmass, the Gulf of California is operating at maximum output as a massive convective thermal battery, with exceptionally hot sea surface temperatures relentlessly bleeding high levels of latent heat and moisture into the lower atmosphere. This immense thermal reservoir is dramatically tightening the cross-peninsular pressure gradient against the cold Pacific shore, creating a powerful thermal vacuum that will pull robust, refreshing afternoon sea breezes across our interior coastal plains later today.
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Regional Forecast for Today
Baja California
The northern state is navigating sharp microclimatic contrasts today under a high cloud ceiling that will filter the incoming solar radiation. Along the immediate Pacific coastline, communities spanning from Tijuana and Rosarito Beach down through Ensenada and San QuintÃn will see morning gray rapidly transition to an afternoon of filtered, milky sunshine. Ambient conditions will feel warm to a bit warmer at the beach line as the fragmented marine stratus pinches tight to the surf zone, accompanied by light to moderate afternoon sea breezes pulsing out of the west-northwest.
Just a short drive inland, the landscape completely detaches from the oceanic influence, turning much warmer through the valleys and mountains, while the super-heated Mexicali Valley turns blistering hot under the high cloud screen with light southeasterly winds. There is an absolute zero percent chance of rain across the northern region today. Along the upper Gulf coastline, locations like San Felipe, Puertecitos, and BahÃa San Luis Gonzaga will turn significantly hot to a lot hotter as the exceptionally warm Gulf waters elevate local humidity levels, keeping nearshore waters to a gentle afternoon chop as surface winds shift out of the east-northeast and southeast.
Baja California Sur
The southern state is locked into an intensely hot thermal profile today, with bright, persistent sunshine dominating almost every major zone down the peninsula’s southern half. Along the Pacific coastline from Guerrero Negro and BahÃa Asunción down through Punta Abreojos and San Juanico, a high cloud screen will filter the afternoon sun, keeping things feeling warm to a bit warmer right at the water’s edge while fresh afternoon winds out of the northwest maintain a light to moderate surface chop on the water.
Further south around San Carlos and Todos Santos, skies will clear to mostly sunny, making the afternoon feel much warmer to hot as steady afternoon sea breezes pulse out of the west-northwest and west-southwest. Inland plains like Ciudad Constitución will turn a lot hotter under a blinding sun. Over on the eastern side, from Santa RosalÃa and Mulegé down into Loreto and La Paz, conditions will turn exceptionally hot to a lot hotter under mostly sunny skies, fueled by super-heated Gulf waters that will trap high relative humidity along the coast. Nearshore marine environments inside the southern Gulf channels will remain smooth and peaceful with gentle easterly to northwesterly afternoon air patterns.
At the southern tip, Cabo San Lucas and Los Barriles will bask under mostly sunny skies and a hot thermal profile with a tiny chance for a brief afternoon sprinkle as tropical moisture edges up from the deep tropics, though coastal waters will remain highly manageable with a gentle southwest to east-northeast breeze.
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National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Update
Western East Pacific Disturbance
The National Hurricane Center is actively monitoring a distinct tropical wave located well southwest of the southern tip of the peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system remain disorganized this morning; however, environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive to gradual development over the next few days.
A tropical depression could form near midweek as the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the western portion of the basin. The official formation chances remain low at near zero percent through forty-eight hours and a low twenty percent over the next seven days. The system is forecast to remain over open waters, moving away from the Mexican coastline with no direct threat to land.
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7-Day Regional Forecast
A filtered sun and patchy morning cloud cover will continue to dictate the pattern through the weekend as the high-altitude moisture shield gradually thins out and moves to the east. This will allow the immediate Pacific beaches to maintain a stable, comfortable, and warm afternoon profile, while the interior desert zones continue to experience a hot daily cycle. Gentle to moderate afternoon sea breezes will persist along both coastlines, keeping nearshore waters highly manageable for weekend boaters while providing a natural air conditioner for the immediate surf line each evening.
A major weather shift will unfold early next week as the massive high-pressure ridge to our southeast expands aggressively westward directly over the peninsular landmass. This expanding heat engine will squash the marine layer from above, restricting any night and morning low clouds mostly to the immediate Pacific surf line. As the atmosphere dries out, conditions will turn completely clear, dry, and a lot hotter across all interior valleys, mountain passes, and desert plains, while afternoon wind gradients steadily tighten along the western coast.
This intense heat ridge will reach a blistering peak by the middle of next week, expanding extreme afternoon heat across the entire peninsula. The northern desert valleys and the central and southern Gulf districts will enter an exceptionally hot phase under blinding, absolute sunshine, causing sea surface temperatures in the Gulf to climb even higher. While the immediate Pacific beaches will find minor afternoon relief from fresh, gusty onshore sea breezes, overnight low temperatures will turn significantly warmer across all communities as a heavy, hot atmospheric envelope locks down the region through the end of the outlook period.
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NE Pacific Marine Conditions
Developing Marine Patterns
A stable ridge of high pressure located well off the western coast of the peninsula is interacting directly with the intense heat generating over the dry landmass. This setup acts like a giant nozzle, creating gentle to moderate daytime breezes along the western oceanfront this afternoon. Because the coastal waters are exceptionally cool, this incoming ocean breeze will function as a natural air conditioner for the immediate beaches, keeping temperatures compressed right at the surf line. As we move later into the weekend, this offshore high-pressure system is expected to build and tighten its grip against the shoreline. This will significantly ramp up the localized wind machine starting Sunday, causing afternoon ocean breezes to shift from moderate to occasionally fresh and gusty right along the beaches.
Further out to sea, the ocean remains highly agitated by the fading remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas. Even though the storm is steadily winding down over a much cooler ocean environment, it is still throwing off an expansive footprint of churned-up seas that extends several hundred miles from its center. A long-period western swell generated by this decaying system will continue to propagate eastward into our local coastal waters over the next couple of days. Down around the southern tip of the peninsula, a completely different maritime engine is taking over. A steady northward push of tropical water is expanding directly out of the deep tropics, bringing a much warmer ocean profile to the Cabo San Lucas region. This influx of warm water is introducing an underlying layer of maritime humidity that will increasingly interact with our afternoon sea breezes in the days ahead.
On the sheltered eastern side of the peninsula, the Gulf of California is operating under a completely separate, highly volatile microclimatic rulebook. The water throughout the entire central and northern Gulf basin is exceptionally warm, turning the sea surface into a massive thermal engine. This high-temperature reservoir is actively bleeding heat and moisture into the lower atmosphere this morning. Because the surrounding desert landmass is also super-heated, it is drawing in light to moderate afternoon winds out of the south and southeast across the open waters. This constant pumping of moisture over a warm sea surface will trap high relative humidity levels along eastern coastal communities later today, creating a heavy heat index despite the protective layer of high cloud cover filtering the sun aloft.
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Regional Marine Reports
Northern Baja Pacific
Offshore waters from the international border south to El Rosario are experiencing high clouds as the sheared-out moisture aloft filters the daytime sun. Winds are holding from the west-southwest to west-northwest between 8 and 16 mph from Tijuana through Rosarito Beach and down into Ensenada. Near San QuintÃn, west-northwesterly winds are expected to track around 10 to 20 mph during the afternoon window. Coastal sea surface temperatures remain stuck in a very cool range, creating a sharp thermal boundary right at the shoreline. A persistent northwest swell is active across this entire sector, maintaining combined significant wave heights of 4 to 6 feet closer to shore.
Baja California Sur Pacific
Along the central and southern Pacific coastlines, sky conditions will remain under a filter of high clouds throughout the afternoon. Marine environments from Guerrero Negro down through Punta Abreojos and San Juanico are witnessing a high cloud profile with northwesterly to westerly winds tracking around 10 to 24 mph, bringing a light to moderate chop to the open water. Near San Carlos and Todos Santos, conditions will feel sunny to mostly sunny and a bit warmer, with northwesterly wind speeds tracking around 10 to 20 mph in San Carlos and 8 to 16 mph in Todos Santos. Combined seas throughout these open waters are holding steady between 4 and 6 feet.
Northern Gulf of California
Conditions across the upper basin near San Felipe and Puertecitos are staying in a warm range this afternoon under a high cloud deck. Winds are blowing out of the east-northeast to east-southeast at 8 to 14 mph in San Felipe and 8 to 16 mph in Puertecitos, while BahÃa San Luis Gonzaga sees southeasterly flow at 10 to 18 mph. This active gradient is bringing warm air across the coastline, keeping local seas running gentle at 3 feet or less across the shallow channels.
Southern Gulf of California
The lower basin, including the waters off Loreto, Mulegé, and La Paz, is basking under mostly sunny skies and a much warmer thermal profile. Winds around Loreto are light to moderate out of the southeast at 6 to 14 mph, while Mulegé experiences northeasterly breezes at 10 to 20 mph. Near La Paz, winds originate from the northwest at 8 to 14 mph. While the daytime ambient air remains a lot hotter than the Pacific coast, marine breezes inside the southern Gulf of California are stable, keeping local seas running gentle at 3 feet or less.
Los Cabos
At the extreme southern tip of the peninsula, open-water conditions remain highly favorable for daytime operators under mostly sunny skies. Winds are currently blowing from the southwest to south-southwest at speeds of 10 to 18 mph near Cabo San Lucas, while Los Barriles sees east-northeasterly breezes at 8 to 14 mph. Water temperatures at the confluence are holding at very warm levels, and while a moderate northwest swell is mixing with the primary southern swell train offshore, coastal seas remain highly manageable, averaging 4 to 6 feet closer to shore.
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Marine Warnings and Hazards
Offshore Wind and Sea Hazards
Real-time offshore maritime data from the National Hurricane Center indicates that a Gale Warning remains in effect this morning over the open waters of the western East Pacific due to the persistent wind profile of Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas. While the system is located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the peninsula, recent satellite data confirmed that tropical storm force winds up to 40 mph and gusts to 50 mph are still pulsing within 150 nautical miles of its northern quadrant. Rough seas peaking at 13 feet continue to extend up to 480 nautical miles from the storm’s center, which will maintain elevated, choppy open-ocean conditions for vessels traveling well offshore this weekend.
Swell and Surf Warnings
Closer to the immediate coastline of the peninsula, there are currently no active watches or warnings in effect for the local beach zones or the Gulf of California. The ridge of high pressure off the western coast will keep immediate peninsular waters highly manageable today, sustaining gentle to moderate winds and overall sea heights running between 4 feet and 6 feet along the Pacific oceanfront. Small craft operators should remain alert for standard afternoon wind packing near coastal points, but hazardous maritime conditions are expected to remain confined well out to sea as Douglas opens into a broad trough and completely dissipates by Sunday.
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Seawater Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
| Location | Temp | Trend | Notes |
| BahÃa Asunción, BCS | 61°F | Cooling | Mid Baja Pacific active upwelling under northwest flow |
| Ba. Los Angeles, BC | 79°F | Steady | Northern Gulf of California deep tidal channel mixing insulation |
| Ba. San Ignacio, BCS | 76°F | Warming | Mid Baja Pacific shallow lagoon outflow solar stabilization |
| Bahia Gonzaga, BC | 81°F | Warming | Northern Gulf of California seasonal surface heating acceleration |
| Cabo San Lucas, BCS | 82°F | Warming | Tropical surface water push strengthening at the peninsular tip |
| Cabo San QuintÃn, BC | 62°F | Steady | Northern Baja Pacific persistent vertical mixing cell |
| Ensenada, BC | 67°F | Warming | Microclimate solar gain inside BahÃa de Todos Santos |
| Erendira, BC | 61°F | Steady | Northern Baja Pacific persistent vertical upwelling anchor |
| Guerrero Negro, BCS | 72°F | Cooling | Mid Baja Pacific high tidal exchange moderating lagoon waters |
| La Paz, BCS | 80°F | Steady | Southern Gulf of California deep basin thermal mass stability |
| Loreto, BCS | 85°F | Warming | Central Gulf of California intense convective heat retention |
| Los Barriles, BCS | 85°F | Warming | Southern Gulf of California seasonal thermal battery absorption |
| Mulege, BCS | 87°F | Warming | Central Gulf of California maximum localized solar amplification |
| Playas de Tijuana, BC | 68°F | Cooling | Northern Baja Pacific boundary current seasonal stability |
| Puertecitos, BC | 81°F | Warming | Northern Gulf of California shallow basin solar gain |
| Punta Abreojos, BCS | 65°F | Warming | Mid Baja Pacific localized thermal boundary push |
| Rosarito Beach, BC | 68°F | Warming | Northern Baja Pacific marine layer cloud cover break lifting baseline |
| San Carlos, BCS | 72°F | Warming | Southern Baja Pacific shelf water reacting to high ambient air |
| San Felipe, BC | 82°F | Steady | Northern Gulf of California shallow basin thermal baseline |
| San Juanico, BCS | 73°F | Steady | Southern Baja Pacific swell column mixing equilibrium |
| Santa Rosalia, BCS | 84°F | Warming | Central Gulf of California surface heat retention acceleration |
| Santa RosaliÃta, BC | 66°F | Steady | Central Baja Pacific northerly breeze baseline holding firm |
| Todos Santos, BCS | 77°F | Warming | Southern Baja Pacific tropical surface water encroachment |
Tropical Storm Weather Forecast
CURRENT ACTIVE SYSTEM
CURRENT ACTIVE SYSTEM
Offshore Waters Forecast (E Pacific Offshore of Mexico)
Windy 10 Day Forecast
GFS Model
ECMWF Model (European)
Atmospheric Pressure Changes
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's)