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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Sunday September 18, 2022
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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Sunday September 18, 2022
Weather Summary for the Baja California Peninsula
Sunday September 18, 2022Sponsored by BajaBound.com
Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022A large burst of deep convection has developed southwest of Madeline’s center during the past few hours, with another broken line of convection oriented parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. The current intensity remains 40 kt as a blend of the latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.
Madeline is located along the southwestern periphery of a large mid-tropospheric high, and to the southeast of a deep-layer trough to the west of California. The initial motion is northward, or 350/9 kt, but this steering set up should cause Madeline to gradually turn northwestward later today, and then west-northwestward and westward away from the coast of Mexico from 36 hours and beyond. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, but there is more spread after that, with a few models keeping Madeline too strong and maintaining a northwestward motion. These models are discounted, and the official forecast continues to show a westward bend, following the GFS, ECMWF, and model consensus solutions.
Madeline’s broad circulation, and continued moderate to strong easterly shear, argue against much, if any, intensification during the next day or so. The official forecast still allows for the possibility for some minimal strengthening during the next 24 hours while Madeline is over warm waters. After 24 hours, the storm is forecast to begin moving across the cold wake left behind by former Hurricane Kay, which is expected to induce weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous prediction, and it now shows Madeline degenerating into a post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, when model simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that all deep convection should have dissipated.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes today and tonight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 18.5N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 19.5N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 20.4N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 21.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 21.3N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 21.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 21.6N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z 21.1N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Today’s Weather Forecast
Along the Baja Pacific side today, expect for afternoon temperatures reaching up to 78 degrees around Ensenada, 79 in San Quintin, 78 in Guerrero Negro and up to 85 today around the Todos Santos area.
Down Baja’s gulf coastline this afternoon the high temps should reach up to 91 degrees for San Felipe, 93 in Bahia de Los Angeles, 94 in Mulege, 93 in Loreto and up to 96 in La Paz.
The Cabo San Lucas area should see up to a maximum of 86 degrees under mostly cloudy skies with thunderstorms possible late this afternoon / early evening.
For more weather information on the Baja peninsula along with extended forecasts and live satellite and radar imaging, go to:
https://talkbaja.com/baja-mexico-weather/
#BajaWeather #Baja #StormWatch #BajaStorm #BajaStormWatch
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1 Reply
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Doesn’t appear right now with this forecast that TS Madeline represents a serious storm threat in terms of high winds and rain but she could bring a storm storm surge to the southern Baja Pacific coastline in the days ahead. Stay tuned and get prepped, just in case…
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