Baja Weather and Road Conditions
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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Friday September 1, 2022
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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Friday September 1, 2022
Weather Summary for the Baja California Peninsula
Thursday September 1, 2022Sponsored by BajaBound.com
Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022While quite broad, Javier continues to improve in organization. Deep convection has been forming near the center of the circulation with cold cloud tops below -80 degrees C. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt to represent a blend of the Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB.
The storm is expected to be over warm waters (greater than 26 degrees C) for another 24 hours. Global models also indicate atmospheric conditions should be conducive for additional strengthening, with weak vertical wind shear and ample environmental moisture. But due to Javier’s elongated structure, the official forecast calls for the system to only slightly intensify in the next day. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and enters a drier, more stable environment. Javier is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours.
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. The storm is moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north. In the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to build westward and turn Javier toward the west-northwest and west. The official forecast is again adjusted to the right of the previous forecast towards the multi-model consensus aids. However, tropical-storm-force winds generated by the storm are predicted to remain offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur. Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of days.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 20.7N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOWToday’s Weather Forecast
Along the Baja Pacific side today, expect for afternoon temperatures reaching up to 85 degrees around Ensenada, 89 in San Quintin, 92 in Guerrero Negro and up to 84 today around the Todos Santos area.
Down Baja’s gulf coastline this afternoon the high temps should reach 96 degrees for San Felipe, 91 in Bahia de Los Angeles, 88 in Mulege, 85 in Loreto and up to 87 this afternoon around La Paz.
The Cabo San Lucas area should see up to a maximum of 84 degrees under partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon with a chance of rain showers, thunderstorms and high winds/surf this afternoon.
For more weather information on the Baja peninsula along with extended forecasts and live satellite and radar imaging, go to:
https://talkbaja.com/baja-mexico-weather/
#BajaWeather #Baja #StormWatch #BajaStorm #BajaStormWatch
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