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General topics about life on and travel to the Baja California Peninsula of Mexico
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Baja’s EXTREME water problems – Mad Max 2022?
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Baja’s EXTREME water problems – Mad Max 2022?
Water shortage: Has Baja California reached the point of no return?
By Dr. Ismael Plascencia López – Professor of Economics UABC
The future depicted in movies like MAD MAX has already reached us.
The Higher Education Institutions (IES) and the Research Centers (CI) of the country, through their researchers and with public education, science and technology policies defined by CONACYT, should begin focusing on proposing alternative solutions to the serious problem of water scarcity that we face in Mexico, mainly in the north and that will continue to worsen.It is estimated that water covers 70 percent of our planet, which makes us think that it is abundant and that we only have to come up with efficient desalination processes to face the problem of scarcity. Leaving aside the technological change aspect of large-scale desalination, we must situate ourselves in what we are currently facing.
Of the total water on the planet, only 3 percent is fresh and two-thirds of that water is trapped in glaciers so we can’t use it, leaving us with 1 percent. Of that one percent, 70 percent is used for agriculture, of that percentage destined for agriculture, 60 percent is wasted due to leaks and inefficient irrigation.
This brutal waste is drying up rivers, lakes and underground aquifers.
Added to overexploitation and waste is the contamination of water that is due to different sources such as pesticides and fertilizers from agriculture, sewage from cities and industrial waste.
Add to that the fact that worldwide, a fifth of the global population (1.6 billion people) live in areas that face severe scarcity.
According to the National Water Commission (CONAGUA), there is a shortage of the vital liquid in 81 percent of the national territory. The National Weather Service reported that from October 1, 2021 to May 15, 2022 it has rained 21.4 percent less than the historical average for that same period.
This has caused eight states to have between 90 and 100 percent of their territory affected to some degree from drought ranging from moderate to extreme, with those being: Aguascalientes, Baja California, Baja California Sur, Coahuila, Sonora, Chihuahua, Nayarit and Nueva Leon .
Water in Baja California
In cities like Ensenada, the water began getting cutoff for periods of time a few years ago to deal with the distribution system shortages and today there are neighborhoods where the water is cutoff for more than half the time.
While we see some strong and even radical measures being taken up north in the state of California such as letting fruit trees dry up, removing lawns and green landscaping as well as installing water flow reducers in restaurants, south of the border here in cities like Tijuana we continue to act as if nothing is going on.
That is why we must begin with some public awareness measures to inform the population, not only on World Water Day (March 22) but every day, of the serious and growing problem we are experiencing.
Since 1999, flow from the tributary of the Colorado River that supplies our region, began to decrease due to global warming and population growth.
In 2023 there will be another sharp cut in water deliveries from the Colorado River for Mexico, amounting to 128 million cubic meters. To put that into perspective, water specialist Dr. Alfonso Cortés Lara points out that volume represents 130% of what the City of Mexicali consumes in one year and nearly 30% statewide.
Logically, this will mean less water for all of the cities and municipalities of Baja California.
It is important that we begin to work together in a coordinated effort to start solving this growing water crisis and recognize that such a complex problem will require a multiple faceted approach in which all sectors of our society will play a role and must participate.
The future depicted in Mad Max is here and either we start organizing ourselves by making some smart public policy coordinated with information and awareness campaigns to mitigate the drought’s effects or we will be facing a national security nightmare that will most certainly bring with it unprecedented economic and social unrest.
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32 Replies
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Wow – he certainly didn’t sugar coat that and I was surprised to hear him say aloud that he expects to see social unrest if things don’t start turning around. I do think he’s right and he’s the first one I have seen to actually ring the alarm bell so loudly down here.
Now we’ll just have to wait and see if anybody is listening?
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If history gives us any indication, probably not until the point we are ready to go to war to ensure its steady flow to keep our golf courses green and almond farms producing.
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Holy smokes! What bad is the current water supply situation in BCS by comparison?
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Appears to be just as bad on the southern half of the peninsula and the local authorities seem to have decided that more desalination plants is the only viable option.
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I believe that La Paz and Cabo already depend quite heavily on desal
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Water wars could become a reality…
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210816-how-water-shortages-are-brewing-wars
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A new commodity for the cartels to control
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As cartels tend to be better at long term planning than most governments, I am sure they are already getting their hooks and people in place.
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I knew it was bad but this paints a picture of an entirely new level of bad. Social unrest – really?
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Remember 2014 when the farm workers in San Quintin decided to revolt over low wages, shutting down the Transpeninsular, attacking cars and buses? That event took over the entire region for a week before some compensation agreements were reached. This is different as there is negotiated settlement that will turn the water back on in the homes of people down here and the problem won’t go away in a week or month or even a year.
I think that this could potentially get quite ugly and if I were living close to the sea right now I’d be looking to buy a small desal unit, just in case.
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Don’t remind me
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Oh, man. We had to cancel a trip down to BOLA then. The wife didn’t like the unpaved 5 back then so we put it off until the following year but thank God the alternate route is now paved all the way through.
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This would probably be worse than the farm worker revolt as everybody would be affected and then multiply that by every community along Baja’s highways.
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Ouch! That’s painful just to think about!
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If we can design and build transcontinental oil and gas pipelines, why not for water as well from areas that seasonally deal with excess rainfall / flooding?
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I have been asking that very question for a long time.
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That would make a lot of sense.
https://bigthink.com/the-present/an-interstate-water-system-could-fix-the-wests-water-woes/
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Exactly
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Who makes the determination of the 30% cut in water from the Colorado River? That’s a huge number and almost seems crazy.
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California is still operating under an antiquated, good-ol-boys type system of water rights managed through multiple districts and are largely wasting much of that precious water on crops with high water requirements that have no business being grown in our climate. Add that to the fact that the average California home needlessly wastes hundreds of gallons each day on average. The very first thing we should do is place water pressure reducers on all homes. People waste 3-5 gallons of water simply brushing their teeth!
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I agree. With the water pressure being what it is right now, even a small leak can turn into hundreds of gallons overnight. People are so careless with their water, wasting hundreds of gallons each day. And if you multiply that by the approx 15 million homes in California, that’s billions of gallons wasted every day in California alone! We took out all of our lawns and have gradually evolved our outdoor areas into predominantly outdoor living (with shade) and our gardens to more desert like landscaping with low water needs. With those changes alone we figure that we cut our water consumption in half with other conservation moves we are today consuming less than 30% of the water we used to use just 10 years ago. We also feel like our home has gotten much bigger with the increased living areas and enjoy using it much more. Unfortunately, there is us and only one other home on our block that has made such a serious effort, with most just doing the bare minimum. People still aren’t taking this seriously and they probably won’t until they have no water.
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I congratulate you. If everyone was so responsible with their water we would have a water surplus and the Colorado River would flow free into the Sea of Cortez.
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We did a lot of the same things at our home and not only are we saving on water, our landscaping maint. costs have gone way down as well and we are using our outdoor spaces much more these days. I admit it was my wife’s idea and she had to convince me to do it as I was envisioning a dry and dismal look – especially to the front of the house but by also adding some rock work it actually came out looking much more interesting than just a lot of green lawn and standard shrubs and flower beds like all the homes in the area.
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Beautiful!
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Thanks. I admit that I do really love it now but back when my wife first “suggested” that we make the landscaping change, I hated the idea. My head filled with visions of an ugly white rock yard with 2 or 3 cactus and weeds growing up between the rocks. I had invested a lot of time and money into creating a lush oasis in our back yard with the front full of (water hungry) annual flowers. It wasn’t until she ratcheted up her “suggestions” with her coy voice she often used to make me think it was my idea all along, by convincing me that those visions in my head of white rock lawns full of weeds with a couple of cactus were people who simply didn’t want to bother with landscaping and nothing close to what we were going to create.
And she was right, as she usually is.
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There are many more restrictions on water up here in California than I see in Tijuana or other parts of Baja California. The author is correct, the authorities do not take this seriously yet. All they do is turn off the water to neighborhoods, one at a time, one after another. That is their conservation plan.
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A significant portion of California is in critical drought status including much of the central San Joaquin Valley which keeps grocery produce shelves stocked for much of the western US. And no sign of any rain in sight, last time I checked. People on both sides of the border need to wake up, as this is only going to get a lot uglier.
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You are 100% correct but it appears that not very many are listening. And they won’t until they are no longer able to take a shower or flush their toilets.
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More water outages for Tijuana and Rosarito beginning this coming Monday.
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Water situation is critical in 4 states: Conagua
In Sonora and Baja California, more than 99% of land area is experiencing moderate drought or worse
Published on Monday, July 18, 2022
Drought is affecting over 90% of the territory of four northern states, a situation the National Water Commission (Conagua) classifies as critical. According to Conagua’s most recent “drought monitor” report, Sonora, Baja California, Coahuila and Chihuahua face critical situations.
All but 0.1% of Sonora’s territory is affected by some level of drought. Just under half the land area – 49.3% – is affected by severe drought, 32.9% is affected by moderate drought and 17.7% by extreme drought. The 0.1% of territory not affected is abnormally dry, according to Conagua, which declared a drought emergency last week.
Baja California is in a similar situation with 99.7% of its territory affected by drought, while 95.8% of Coahuila is in drought. In the latter state, 5.5% of the land area is affected by exceptional drought, the worst level. Chihuahua also classifies for Conagua’s critical category with 90.1% of territory affected by drought, including 4.1% in the exceptional drought bracket.
Conagua’s report, which considered data up to June 30, said that 47.5% of national territory is affected by drought ranging from moderate to exceptional. The commission’s drought monitor map shows that drought conditions are concentrated in the north of the country, while several southern and southeastern states are drought-free or very close to that status.
Related to the La Niña climate pattern, the lack of rainfall is also reflected by the scarcity of water in dams. The newspaper El País reported Monday that Mexico’s 210 main dams are only 45% full on average, a level that is 10% lower than normal. Some dams are completely dry or close to it.
Another northern state plagued by a lack of water is Nuevo León, where 41.6% of territory is affected by drought and an additional 53.1% is abnormally dry. The water shortage prompted authorities to take the decision last month to limit access to water to just six hours per day in the metropolitan area of Monterrey.
A plan to increase water supply in the state capital hit a snag on the weekend when residents of the municipality of Allende set fire to pipes that were to be used to divert water from the Ramos River. Some 18 pipes were set alight early Saturday by residents who disagreed with the state government’s plan to extract 500 liters per second from the river, which runs through a citrus fruit-growing region.
People opposed to the plan also shut down a highway in Allende for two hours Saturday morning. They only agreed to lift their blockade when Mayor Patricia Salazar pledged to discuss the project with state authorities.
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/water-critical-4-states-conagua/
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This reply was modified 2 years, 4 months ago by bajatraveler.
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Looks like the water-shortage violence has already started. Buckle up boys and girls…
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Scary
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This reply was modified 2 years, 4 months ago by
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