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Hurricane Kay | September 2022
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Hurricane Kay | September 2022
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022
…KAY STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO…
…AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENROUTE…
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————–
LOCATION…15.5N 106.8W. ABOUT 295 MI…470 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ABOUT 535 MI…865 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H. PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.32 INCHES.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas
* Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests north of the watch area in Baja California should closely monitor the progress of Kay as Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required tonight or on Tuesday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 106.8 West. Kay is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwest to north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to remain south and southwest of southwestern Mexico through tonight, then move toward the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Continued strengthening is forecast through midweek.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread up the peninsula and the Gulf of California later this week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides.
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23 Replies
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Just found out yesterday that some friends are planning to leave San Diego tomorrow to drive down to Loreto for a weeks vacation. They are aware of the coming storm system but don’t think that Loreto will be much affected and believe they can be off the highway before it reaches that far north.
I told them they were stupid for even risking it, right?
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Why risk it? Show them some videos of cars floating away down flooded ravines.
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Not trying to be overly dramatic on this but Kay does seem to be hell bent on wreaking some havoc on southern Baja and it does make me wonder? How does Kay right now compare to Odile at about this same time in their development?
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What I remember about Odile was that there wasn’t great alignment in the different forecast models and many predicted that Odile would turn west out to sea early on. The system seemed undecided for a few days, without a really well defined concentric spin and meandered about the very warm waters south of Cabo and west of the Mexican mainland before suddenly seeming to lock onto a smooth spin – probably over a very warm and humid patch of ocean – and then accelerated up to category 4 hurricane strength shortly before crossing land.
Kay right now was just declared a hurricane and the NHC continues to upgrade her speed forecasts so all I can say is, stay tuned.
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I saw this on Windy earlier and this is definitely looking like BIG trouble from Mag Bay to Bahia Asuncion and Tortugas. I bet every fisherman along that stretch is going to start pulling their pangas WAAAAAY up and far away from the water’s edge.
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Definitely pissing me off as we planned to head down to Abreojos on Thursday. Oh well, let’s see what it looks like next week.
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Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022Satellite images indicate that banding features have become better defined during the past several hours. The low-level center is now more embedded in the deep convection, and Kay has strengthened significantly. An ASCAT pass from around 16Z showed peak winds in the 50-55 kt range on the system’s east side, and the 18Z Dvorak estimates were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Kay and the aircraft recently reported a minimum pressure of 981 mb, which is notably lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also measured maximum SFMR and flight-level winds to support increasing the intensity to 70 kt.
The storm continues to move westward, but at a slightly slower pace of around 10 kt. The model guidance remains in fairly good agreement that a turn to the west-northwest is likely to begin tonight followed by a northwestward motion by Tuesday night. Although this should take the core of Kay well to the west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, tropical storm conditions are possible there by early Wednesday given its expansive wind field. Kay will likely be very near the west-central portion of the peninsula on Thursday and Friday, and hurricane watches could be required for that region tonight or tomorrow. After that time, a turn to the west seems likely as Kay weakens and is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge building over the southwestern United States. The NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one in the short term, which is based on the initial motion and position, but is otherwise largely unchanged.
Steady strengthening is expected to continue during the next couple of days as Kay remains over warm SSTs and embedded in a moist air mass. In addition, the storm is forecast to move into a lower wind shear environment in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance. Beyond a couple of days, however, progressively cooler SSTs and a drier air mass should end the strengthening trend and induce steady weakening.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Gusts to tropical-storm-force and rough surf along the coast of southwestern Mexico are expected through Tuesday. In addition, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.
3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind, surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula. A tropical storm or hurricane watch could be issued for that region tonight or Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 15.6N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.2N 108.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.5N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 18.8N 112.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 20.5N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 22.4N 113.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.5N 114.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.8N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 29.6N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
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Looks like Kay will be at least a Cat3 hurricane now.
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Friends living in the East Cape area just messaged me – they got clobbered last night with winds and rain. The power went out for a period but is back on as of now. Lots of flooding and the area is generally not accessible so they are just going to wait to camp out at the house and wait this out for a couple of days. Said that several times during the night it felt like it could have been a lot worse than what it panned out to be and are more concerned about a family member living in Todos Santos.
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Todos Santos wasn’t hit too bad last night but I have already seen some comments from some there believing the worst is over. Kay still has a lot more in store for the southern Baja Pacific region and as she spins around, expect for more high winds and heavy rain / surf as Kay is really now only beginning her move up along the coastline. Some areas will get harder than others and it’s best to stay hunkered down until she has completely passed by…
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Kay Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022
…KAY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA…
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…21.4N 112.8W
ABOUT 210 MI…340 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…971 MB…28.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Abreojos southward to Cabo San Lucas
* San Jose De Las Palomas to Cabo San Quintin
* Cabo San Lucas northward along the entire east of Baja and then
southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo San Quintin to U.S./Mexico border
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 112.8 West. Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion should continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula this afternoon, and be near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula Thursday and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible this afternoon. Although weakening is forecast to begin by Thursday, Kay is expected to remain a large hurricane when it passes near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 971 mb (28.67 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning on Thursday, and are possible within the Hurricane Watch area Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning in the next few hours and are forecast to spread northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch on Friday.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Kay makes landfall along the
western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday…
Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches
Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with maxima of 6 inches
Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches
These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico.
SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For more weather information on the Baja peninsula along with extended forecasts and live satellite and radar imaging, go to:
https://talkbaja.com/baja-mexico-weather/
#BajaWeather #Baja #StormWatch #BajaStorm #BajaStormWatch #HurricaneKay
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The surge out of this will be so massive that I am not sure it will even be something to go after in terms of surfing.
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Flooding in Mulege
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Another video from Mulege
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This was the coastline in Bahia Asuncion earlier today
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Got a WhatsApp message late last week from a friend in BA, he still didn’t have cell service.
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Lots of people have reported to me there remain several areas that are still dealing with problem left by this storm system. It is hard to express in terms of volume the amount of water that was dumped on the peninsula over a few days.
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Wicked!
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This is one thing I really don’t like about my culture, we always believe we know better and the warnings are for other people, not us.
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Lots of gringos get caught trying that too
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We got nearly 3 inches of rain here at our place on the coastline outside of San Quintin and hear of several getting nearly 4 inches with some undoubtedly getting even more. It rained hard all night Thursday with some strong wind gusts that picked up even more as the rain lightened up just a tad on Friday. There is a lot of debris all around with lots of reports of small houses losing sections of their roofs. I saw one piece of tin roof fly by us yesterday morning about 60 feet off the ground.
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That is surprising that far north. Weird weather for sure.
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It was only our second time in 20 years
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