Baja Weather and Road Conditions
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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Tuesday August 9, 2022
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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Tuesday August 9, 2022
Weather Summary for the Baja California Peninsula
Tuesday August 9, 2022
Hurricane Howard Discussion Number 13NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022
Howard has been maintaining a ragged-looking eye on geostationary imagery, but an AMSR-2 microwave overpass showed a well-defined ring of convection in the core. The current intensity is set at 75 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. The hurricane continues to exhibit a fairly well-defined upper-level outflow pattern, indicative of low vertical wind shear.
The system is currently over marginally warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and vertical wind shear is not predicted to increase much over the next couple of days. However Howard will be passing over increasingly cooler ocean waters and into a drier, more stable air mass. These conditions should lead to steady weakening, with the cyclone becoming post-tropical over 22 deg C SSTs in about 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is very close to the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA.
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or at about 300/9 kt. A generally west-northwestward track is likely over the next few days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. A westward turn is expected late in the forecast period when the the increasingly shallow system becomes steered by the lower-tropospheric flow. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous NHC prediction, and remains close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 22.0N 116.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 22.8N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 24.2N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 24.6N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
60H 12/0000Z 24.9N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z…DISSIPATEDToday’s Weather Forecast
Along the Baja Pacific side today, expect for afternoon temperatures reaching up to 82 degrees around Ensenada, 84 in San Quintin, 88 in Guerrero Negro and up to 86 today around the Todos Santos area.
Down Baja’s gulf coastline this afternoon the high temps should reach up to 97 degrees for San Felipe, 98 in Bahia de Los Angeles, 99 in Mulege, 95 in Loreto and up to 96 this afternoon around La Paz.
The Cabo San Lucas area should see up to a maximum of 88 degrees under partly cloudy skies with thunderstorms possible this afternoon.
For more information and extended forecasts along with live satellite and radar imaging go to:
https://talkbaja.com/baja-mexico-weather/
#BajaWeather #Baja #StormWatch #BajaStorm #BajaStormWatch
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1 Reply
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While Howard is making his presence felt along regions of the southern Baja peninsula today, the NHC has adjusted their forecast, predicting that this relatively weak hurricane will now move in a more westerly direction, expected to begin slowing down over the next 24 hours as Howard begins to move over cooler waters.
Howard is still expected to bring some level of storm surge along regions of the southern Baja Pacific coastline, albeit not as strong as previously forecast.
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