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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Thursday September 22, 2022
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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Thursday September 22, 2022
Weather Summary for the Baja California Peninsula
Thursday September 22, 2022Sponsored by BajaBound.com
Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022Newton remains a small, well-organized tropical cyclone. A microwave pass from 1210 UTC revealed a tiny eye-like feature. While the central dense overcast has warmed, upper-level outflow is still prominent in the southern and eastern portions of the circulation, and new deep convection continues to form in the core. There is still a relatively large range of satellite intensity estimates (35-55 kt), likely due to the small size of the cyclone, but the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt with the improved microwave structure.
The storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. A ridge to the northeast is steering Newton and should be the dominant synoptic feature influencing the track for the next few days. The track prediction is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and in the center of the tightly clustered model guidance.
The intensity forecast for this system remains somewhat uncertain. Global model guidance has largely missed the development and intensification of Newton, again, possibly due to its size. Statistical guidance suggests the cyclone will be in a conducive atmospheric environment for the next 24 hours before the vertical wind shear increases and mid-level moisture begins to decrease further. Sea surface temperatures are expected to also gradually decrease as Newton moves near the cold wake of Kay and Madeline. The official intensity forecast keeps Newton at 55 kt before weakening begins in 24 hours through the end of the forecast as oceanic and atmospheric conditions become less favorable. The prediction still shows Newton as a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 17.9N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 18.1N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 18.4N 110.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 19.0N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 19.4N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 19.6N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/1200Z 19.8N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z…DISSIPATED
Today’s Weather Forecast
Along the Baja Pacific side today, expect for afternoon temperatures reaching up to 83 degrees around Ensenada, 84 in San Quintin, 86 in Guerrero Negro and up to 87 today around the Todos Santos area.
Down Baja’s gulf coastline this afternoon the high temps should reach up to 93 degrees for San Felipe, 94 in Bahia de Los Angeles, 96 in Mulege, 93 in Loreto and up to 95 in La Paz.
The Cabo San Lucas area should see up to a maximum of 86 degrees under mostly sunny skies with a light onshore breeze from the west-southwest later this afternoon.
For more weather information on the Baja peninsula along with extended forecasts and live satellite and radar imaging, go to:
https://talkbaja.com/baja-mexico-weather/
#BajaWeather #Baja #StormWatch #BajaStorm #BajaStormWatch
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