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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Sunday September 4, 2022
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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Sunday September 4, 2022
Weather Summary for the Baja California Peninsula
Sunday September 4, 2022Sponsored by BajaBound.com
Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 04 2022Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico has developed sufficiently organized deep convection and a well-defined center to be classified a tropical depression. Thunderstorm activity, with a significant amount of lightning, is strongest in a band on the system’s west side. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. It should also be noted there are likely strong wind gusts to the north of the center where winds typically accelerate in these situations near the coast of Mexico.
The initial motion is estimated to be 280/9 kt, but this is somewhat uncertain since the system just formed. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, keeping the core of the system south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during that time. Thereafter, the models all show a turn to the northwest and then the north. Although the models agree on this turn, there is some spread on where and how sharply the system recurves. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads show solutions as far east as the Gulf of California and as far west as a few hundred miles west of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC track forecast follows the consensus models, which takes the system very near the Baja peninsula in 4 to 5 days.
Overall, the environmental factors appear conducive for the depression to intensify during the next few days with the shear remaining low to moderate in strength, mid-level moisture very high, and SSTs sufficiently warm. However, the large size of the system and lack of an inner core should limit rapid intensification in the short term. The intensity guidance show at least steady strengthening during the next 72 hours followed by some weakening toward the end of the forecast period due to cooler SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN guidance, and shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today and a significant hurricane near Baja in a few days.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Although the depression is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding in portions of southwestern Mexico.
2. Interests in the Baja California peninsula should closely monitor the depression as tropical storm or hurricane watches could be required tonight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 14.0N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.3N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 14.6N 105.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.3N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.3N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 17.8N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 23.6N 112.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 27.3N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH———————————————–
Today’s Weather Forecast
Along the Baja Pacific side today, expect for afternoon temperatures reaching up to 89 degrees around Ensenada, 86 in San Quintin, 87 in Guerrero Negro and up to 88 today around the Todos Santos area.
Down Baja’s gulf coastline this afternoon the high temps should reach up to 98 degrees for San Felipe, 97 in Bahia de Los Angeles, 95 in Mulege, 93 in Loreto and up to 94 this afternoon around La Paz.
The Cabo San Lucas area should see up to a maximum of 89 degrees under partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon.
For more weather information on the Baja peninsula along with extended forecasts and live satellite and radar imaging, go to:
https://talkbaja.com/baja-mexico-weather/
#BajaWeather #Baja #StormWatch #BajaStorm #BajaStormWatch
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2 Replies
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With the southern regions of the Baja Peninsula drying out and repairing flood damaged roads from Tropical Storm Javier – now downgraded to a remnant depression – it’s no time to let our guard down.
Tropical Depression TWELVE-E has formed and will likely be upgraded to Tropical Storm Kay in a matter of hours and the really troubling part to me is that so early on, the majority of the models seem to be in fairly close agreement to her projected path and wind speeds; at hurricane strength very close along the southern Baja Pacific coastline outside of Todos Santos and even with the cooler SST’s as she is projected to approach the 25th parallel, wind speeds are still expected at tropical storm strength moving along San Juanico, Abreojos and Asuncion.
This system is large and packing a very large water mass, meaning that not only will it likely bring a lot of rain, the much larger mass of water weight carries proportionally increased inertia which will be more resistant to be affected by minor wind shear events as well as course changes.
If you are anywhere south of the 28th parallel and have not gotten out your hurricane prep list this year, now is the time.
Please.
With just a little bad luck, Hurricane Kay could possibly become one of those once in a decade, really bad storms that hit Baja. Please get out your prep lists, replace missing/expired items as well as make a check around your property. Check on the location and status of your local emergency shelters, have a plan for your pets and if you were planning to travel through the area late this week, you might want to consider changing your travel plans.
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That looks bad! I know the region needs rain but that is just knarly looking.
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