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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Sunday August 7, 2022
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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Sunday August 7, 2022
Weather Summary for the Baja California Peninsula
Sunday August 7, 2022Sponsored by BajaBound.com
Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 07 2022The depression remains disheveled this morning, with the center of the system still partially exposed to the southwest of the deepest convective activity. This structure is primarily due to dry air being imported to the center by moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear (VWS). Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, while the latest objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT was T2.5/35 kt. Given the lackluster satellite presentation, the initial intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory.
The depression is now moving northwest as a slightly slower pace, estimated at 315/10 kt. A mid-level ridge located northeast of the system is expected to steer it generally northwestward over the next few days. One interesting note in the immediate future is there is a weakness in this ridge to the north, partially related to an upper-level trough currently shearing the depression. If the system is able to become better aligned vertically, this could lead to a rightward shift in the short-term track. The NHC track forecast accounts for this possibility by being located on the right side of the track guidance envelope over the next 12-36 hours. This track is just a bit northeast of the previous one, though it blends back towards the consensus aids by the end of the forecast, when the system will likely be steered by the low-level trade wind flow.
A weak upper-level trough located northwest of the depression is the primary feature maintaining southwesterly VWS over the system. Over the next day or so, both the GFS and ECMWF suggest this feature should decay and shift southwest, perhaps related to convection building up-shear around the depression while helping to align its low and mid-level centers. Should this process occur, intensification still appears possible. One alternate solution is that convective outflow is not able to displace the upper-level low and some amount of shear is maintained over the system. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast will maintain a peak of 45 kt in 36-48 hours, right around the time the system will be crossing the 26 C sea surface temperature (SST) isotherm. After that time, weakening is expected over even cooler SSTs and a more stable environment. The system is still expected to become a post-tropical remnant low at the end of the forecast period. This intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance envelope overall, but is close to the latest HCCA consensus aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 16.8N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.9N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.4N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 20.7N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 21.7N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 22.5N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 23.1N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 24.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 24.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOWToday’s Weather Forecast
Along the Baja Pacific side today, expect for afternoon temperatures reaching up to 81 degrees around Ensenada, 82 in San Quintin, 86 in Guerrero Negro and up to 87 today around the Todos Santos area.
Down Baja’s gulf coastline this afternoon the high temps should reach up to 96 degrees for San Felipe, 95 in Bahia de Los Angeles, 96 in Mulege, 92 in Loreto and up to 94 this afternoon around La Paz.
The Cabo San Lucas area should see up to a maximum of 88 degrees under partly to mostly cloudy skies with an onshore breeze from the southeast this afternoon.
For more information and extended forecasts along with live satellite and radar imaging go to:
https://talkbaja.com/baja-mexico-weather/
#BajaWeather #Baja #StormWatch #BajaStorm #BajaStormWatch
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3 Replies
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Wind shear is causing some disruption with Tropical Depression Nine-E that is altering its forecast trajectory slightly east with milder wind speeds. At this stage, much could still change as this system continues to attempt to organize and we’ll keep a watchful eye on any new developments.
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Is it just me or has this been a really weird year with the weather?
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I have too and it’s not just in our region of the planet.
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