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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Saturday August 6, 2022
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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Saturday August 6, 2022
Weather Summary for the Baja California Peninsula
Saturday August 6, 2022Sponsored by BajaBound.com
Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 06 2022The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southwestern Mexico has continued to show increased signs of organization this morning. A 0857 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass suggests its circulation has become better defined, and satellite imagery shows evidence of some curved convective banding mainly to the east of its estimated low-level position. Additionally, the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.0 and T1.5, respectively. Since the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, advisories are being initiated on this system as a 30-kt tropical depression.
The center is located near the western edge of the convective mass, likely due to the 10-15 kt of westerly shear that the cyclone is experiencing this morning. Although weak to moderate shear may continue to affect the system during the next couple of days, the majority of the guidance suggests that warm SSTs and sufficient mid-level moisture should allow for at least gradual strengthening through early next week. This trend is reflected in the NHC forecast, which calls for the depression to become a tropical storm by tonight and continue intensifying to near hurricane strength by Tuesday. Then, the system is forecast to move into a drier, more stable environment over decreasing SSTs, which should induce a weakening trend through the middle of next week.
The estimated initial motion of the depression is northwestward, or 305/11 kt. A distant low- to mid-level ridge over the southern U.S. should steer the cyclone northwestward to west-northwestward over the next few days, keeping it well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Although there is reasonably good agreement in the early part of the forecast period, there is above-average spread in the track guidance on days 3-5. Stronger model solutions like the GFS and HWRF lie on the northern end of the guidance envelope, while the weaker ECMWF and UKMET solutions are much further south. The official NHC forecast generally follows the multi-model consensus aids, but lies a bit north of HCCA and TVCE at later forecast times.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 14.3N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 15.1N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 16.2N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 17.5N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 19.0N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 20.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 21.1N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 23.5N 122.5WToday’s Weather Forecast
Along the Baja Pacific side today, expect for afternoon temperatures reaching up to 80 degrees around Ensenada and in San Quintin, 81 in Guerrero Negro and up to 87 today around the Todos Santos area.
Down Baja’s gulf coastline it’s going to be another hot one today in the northern gulf with up to 99 degrees for San Felipe and 97 in Bahia de Los Angeles. Expect for the posibilitiy of thunderstorms as you continue south with 96 in Mulege, 92 in Loreto and up to 97 this afternoon around La Paz.
The Cabo San Lucas area should see up to a maximum of 90 degrees under partly cloudy skies with an onshore breeze from the southwest this afternoon providing a bit of relief from the heat and humidity.
For more information and extended forecasts along with live satellite and radar imaging go to:
https://talkbaja.com/baja-mexico-weather/
#BajaWeather #Baja #StormWatch #BajaStorm #BajaStormWatch
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2 Replies
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A large low pressure air mass has moved in over much of the southern half of the Baja Peninsula south of the 28th parallel this morning bringing the possibility of thunderstorms, rain showers and humidity to areas of the region today.
Tropical Depression Nine-E has formed and should quickly ramp up into a Tropical Storm, forecast to move northwest while maintaining TS force winds well north of the 20th parallel but safely west of the peninsula on this initial forecast track.
This system could at minimum bring more rain to the southern regions as well as an expected storm search.
Stay tuned!
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Checking out this weather report has me thinking of driving down to Rosarito or Ensenada real early tomorrow and fillup the tank while I am there. It’s supposed to be around 100 here all weekend (Temecula) – yech!
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