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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Monday August 8, 2022
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Baja Daily Weather Forecast: Monday August 8, 2022
Weather Summary for the Baja California Peninsula
Monday August 8, 2022Sponsored by BajaBound.com
Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 9NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 08 2022Compared to yesterday at this time, Howard has become a much better organized tropical cyclone. After the previous advisory, we received an AMSR-2 microwave pass valid at 0844 UTC, which showed a nearly closed cyan ring at 36 GHz, suggesting a low-level eye feature had developed. More recently, 1-minute GOES-18 interleave satellite imagery is occasionally depicting a banding-type eye signature with colder cloud tops beginning to wrap around this feature. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were both T3.5/55 kt at 1200 UTC, which supports raising the intensity to 55 kt this advisory.
Howard is still moving northwestward at 315/11 kt. The track guidance remains is good agreement that this northwestward motion will continue for the next 24 hours as Howard remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. Starting tomorrow, the storm should gradually turn west-northwestward as the cyclone becomes more vertically shallow and is increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The guidance has shifted ever so slightly north of the previous track forecast, and the latest NHC track was nudged in that direction, remaining close to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.
Howard has another 12-18 hours over greater than 26 C sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in a low shear environment. Given the improvement in the inner core structure and higher initial intensity, the latest NHC forecast was raised quite a bit from the previous advisory and now shows Howard becoming a hurricane later today. After 24 hours, the storm will be moving over rapidly cooling SSTs as the atmospheric environment becomes more stable with shear also increasing. Thus, steady weakening is expected and the latest intensity forecast still makes Howard post-tropical in 60 hours. This forecast is higher than the intensity guidance over the first day, but falls back in line with the consensus aids after that time period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 20.1N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 21.2N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.4N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 24.3N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 24.7N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 24.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 13/1200Z…DISSIPATEDToday’s Weather Forecast
Along the Baja Pacific side today, expect for afternoon temperatures reaching up to 82 degrees around Ensenada, 84 in San Quintin, 86 in Guerrero Negro and up to 87 today around the Todos Santos area.
Down Baja’s gulf coastline this afternoon the high temps should reach up to 96 degrees for San Felipe, 97 in Bahia de Los Angeles, 96 in Mulege, 91 in Loreto and up to 93 this afternoon around La Paz.
The Cabo San Lucas area should see up to a maximum of 88 degrees under partly to mostly cloudy skies with an onshore breeze from the south-southeast this afternoon.
For more information and extended forecasts along with live satellite and radar imaging go to:
https://talkbaja.com/baja-mexico-weather/
#BajaWeather #Baja #StormWatch #BajaStorm #BajaStormWatch
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3 Replies
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Howard should reach hurricane speed later today
Tropical Storm Howard appears to have completely regrouped from the wind shear event a day before and the NHC has adjusted their forecast, now predicting for Howard to reach hurricane speeds later today as he continues moving along his northwest trajectory and expected to maintain at minimum tropical storm force winds all the way up to the 25th parallel.
The southern regions of the peninsula should brace for possible rain showers and thunderstorms from Howard’s outer bands and a strong storm surge along areas of the southern Baja Pacific coastline.
The latest NHC forecast continues to predict that Howard will stay along this track parallel to and and at a relatively safe distance away from to the peninsula but as a good friend once said to me, “hurricanes don’t listen to the NHC“, so you should be prepped – just in case – if you are in or around the southern Baja regions over the next 24 to 48 hours.
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Seems like each new storm is getting closer and I really appreciate the reminder that hurricanes aren’t tuned into the NHC forecast reports. Wise advice to remember.
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Do you think that surge bringing warmer water could carry farther north?
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